The Raiders are hosting the Titans on Sunday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Las Vegas is favored by 4.5 points and this game carries a total of 41.5 points.
Below, I’ll break down this matchup between the Raiders and Titan and give a pick for the game.
Raiders vs. Titans prediction, pick
The Raiders and Titans clash in Las Vegas for a matchup of two 1-4 teams. After upsetting the Patriots in Week 1, the Raiders have lost four in a row and three of these defeats have come by double-digits, including last week’s 40-6 embarrassing loss to the Colts.
Geno Smith inked a two-year, $75 million contract with Las Vegas this offseason, but he has by no means lived up to his huge payday. Smith is averaging a solid 7.3 YPA, but he has thrown a league-high nine interceptions and just six touchdowns. Overall, Smith ranks bottom-seven in both passer rating and EPA per dropback. Brock Bowers (knee) being injured has been one of Smith’s biggest issues and after not practicing in practice Wednesday, Bowers is trending towards missing his second straight game.
While the Raiders’ passing game has struggled, rookie first-round pick Ashton Jeanty also hasn’t lived up to the hype in the backfield, rushing for less than 70 yards in four of his five games. However, this matchup vs. the Titans is a perfect spot for Jeanty to come alive, with Tennessee allowing the fifth-most yards per rush this season (5.0) and Las Vegas should feed the rookie the rock in this matchup. On defense, the Raiders have been below average, ranking 19th in YPPA (6.6) and they have been very inconsistent on that side of the ball, as they have allowed two of their last three opponents to score 40+ points.
While Las Vegas is coming off a blowout loss to the Colts, the Titans are on the heels of their first win of the season. This past Sunday, Tennessee erased an 18-point deficit to defeat the Cardinals 22-21 in Arizona. The Cardinals really gave this game away, most notably with Emari Demercado fumbling at the one-yard line for a touchback instead of scoring an easy touchdown in the fourth quarter, but nonetheless, the Titans notching their first win of the season certainly was a big morale boost for this club that has struggled for most of the season. Prior to this victory, Tennessee was winless and three of their losses came by double-digits, including a shutout loss to the Texans.
The Titans are surrendering the fourth-most YPP in the league on defense (5.9) and on offense, No.1 overall pick Cam Ward has had a rough start to his NFL career. The rookie is averaging just 5.4 YPA while ranking dead last in completion percentage (51.8%) and throwing just two touchdowns to three picks. Furthermore, Ward ranks second-to-last in passer rating and fifth-to-last in EPA per dropback. That being said, Ward posted a season-high 265 passing yards in last week’s comeback win vs. Arizona and he and Calvin Ridley finally flashed some chemistry, with with the wideout finishing with a season-high 131 receiving yards. This paring now faces a Raiders defense that is allowing the ninth-most yards per pass this season (7.0) and if Ward and Ridley can keep their foots on the gas in this appealing spot, it would be huge for Tennessee’s chances in this game.
Raiders vs. Titans pick, best bet
While the Raiders have struggled as of late, being at home and facing the Titans is a great spot for Las Vegas to rely on it’s run game and get their promising rookie in Jeanty going. The Raiders should get off to an early lead and notch a win on their home turf, but Las Vegas being favored by 4.5 points is too much and the Raiders are a shaky bet to cover this spread.
Instead, backing this game to go over it’s decently low 41.5-point total is a better bet, as both the Raiders and the Titans should be able to move the ball with ease in this matchup of two poor defenses.
