The Packers are hosting the Bengals on Sunday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Green Bay is favored by 14 points and this game carries a total of 44.5 points.
Below, I’ll break down this matchup between the Packers and Bengals and give a pick for the game.
Packers vs. Bengals prediction, pick
The Packers enter this matchup coming off their bye week and sit at 2-1-1 this season. After a hot start to the year, easily defeating the Lions and the Commanders, Green Bay has shown some vulnerability in it’s last two games. The Packers lost to the Browns 13-10 in Week 3 and Green Bay finished in an overtime 40-40 tie with the Cowboys in Week 4.
Offensively, Jordan Love has been great at quarterback for the Packers, ranking first in EPA per dropback, fourth in passer rating and fourth in YPA (8.3). The 26-year-old has thrown eight touchdowns to just one interception and Love should flourish against this soft Bengals defense that is allowing the third-most passing touchdowns (11) and eighth-most yards per pass this season (7.3).
On the defensive end, the Packers got lit up by Dak Prescott and company their last time out, but Green Bay is still giving up the second-fewest yards per play this season (4.4). Especially coming off their bye week, Micah Parsons and this Packers defense should thrive against the Bengals’ weak offensive line, that is allowing sacks at the seventh-highest rate in the NFL (8.3%).
Cincinnati is 2-3 this season and with Joe Burrow (toe) sidelined for the foreseeable future and Jake Browning struggling, the Bengals went out and traded for veteran Joe Flacco from the Browns this week and the former Super Bowl MVP will start this Sunday vs. the Packers. Browning went 0-3 in his three starts in place of Burrow, so making a move at quarterback makes complete sense for Cincinnati. However, the 40-year-old Flacco has been putrid this season.
Flacco is completing just 58.1% of his attempts and he is averaging just 5.1 YPA. The veteran has only thrown two touchdowns and he has thrown six picks. While Browning ranks 35th in passer rating and 36th in EPA per dropback, Flacco has been slightly worse, ranking 38th in passer rating and 37th in EPA per dropback.
As a more experienced quarterback than Browning, Flacco could bring some life to the Bengals’ offense as a fresh, new face under center, but the veteran isn’t going to save Cincinnati’s season and Flacco should have a rough Bengals debut in this tough road matchup vs. the Packers.
Packers vs. Bengals pick, best bet
The Packers are well rested after their bye week and they should bounce back with an easy win vs. the Bengals, after the rare tie with the Cowboys. Green Bay has the potential to cover this massive 14-point spread, but this is the largest spread the NFL has seen this season and no matter the situation, a team covering this large of a number is a difficult task.
Rather than betting on the spread, backing the Packers for over 28.5 points at -130 on DraftKings Sportsbook is a much better wager for this contest. Green Bay ranks sixth in offensive EPA and Cincinnati’s awful defense is allowing the third-most PPG this season (31.2).
