We get a good one to cap off Sunday, as the Detroit Lions travel to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Lions are +650 to win it all, the second-lowest odds while the Chiefs are fourth at +950.
After getting manhandled in Week 1 by the Green Bay Packers, the Lions have brushed off that loss like a piece of lint and have since decimated the Bears, Ravens, Browns and Bengals. Granted, those teams aren’t in the upper echelon of the league, but that’s not Detroit’s fault.
In the last four weeks, Detroit has rushed for 4.8 yards per carry and scored eight touchdowns. The EPA per carry is the 10th-best. Through the air, the Lions have posted the second-best EPA per dropback. Jared Goff has completed 73.8% of his passes and thrown 12 touchdowns (1st) with only one interception.
The pass defense has been the strength for the Chiefs while the run defense has been a problem. Kansas City has posted the fifth-best EPA per dropback with four interceptions and 13 sacks. The pressure rate is 13th-best. The run defense has allowed 4.6 yards per carry and the third-highest EPA per carry. That spells trouble against a team with a great offensive line that doesn’t mind grounding-and-pounding defenses into submission.
Steve Spagnuolo is a great defensive coordinator, so it will be interesting to see how he schemes it up.
The Chiefs’ offense has literally been Patrick Mahomes doing his best Atlas impression. Kansas City is tops in EPA per carry, but no thanks to Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt, who have 327 yards between them with three touchdowns. Mahomes has rushed 28 times for 190 yards and three touchdowns. Through the air, he’s accumulated 1,257 yards and eight touchdowns to only two interceptions.
The Lions’ rush defense has been stout, posting the fourth-lowest EPA per carry. Will they be able to limit Mahomes’ scampers? The pass defense has been good, posting the eighth-best EPA per dropback. They’ve intercepted six passes and racked up 16 sacks. The pressure rate is seventh-best.
But most defensive numbers can be thrown out the window when it comes to Mahomes. He’s so good.
Below are the values that could hopefully help take you to the promised land.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1.2M Sunday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (DET @ KC)
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster – Kansas City Chiefs ($2,800)
Smith-Schuster played 66% of the snaps with Xavier Worthy back. That’s a slight dip from the 70% to 80% range without Worthy, but Smith-Schuster is still out there on the field plenty. The aDOT is a paltry 5.7 yards, but he’s not out there to take the top off defenses and hit home runs. At 6-foot-1 and 215 pounds, he’s there to box out defenders for short gains and in the red zone. The red-zone target share is 17.9%. Now, he will likely only garner around four targets but he does have a high of six on the season. Smith-Schuster also hasn’t delivered an egg in FPTS yet, as the low is 1.5 FPTS. He has gone over 10 FPTS twice while scoring one touchdown.
RB Brashard Smith, Kansas City Chiefs ($3,000)
After receiving 26% of the snaps in Week 4, Smith was only out there for 9% in Week 5. Ruh roh. But the three targets tied with Pacheco for the lead among running backs and Smith did receive one red-zone look. Andy Reid has talked positively all year about Smith and getting him more time as the season progresses. His speed and athleticism jump off the screen and he’s going to electrify at some point. I’ll keep taking my shots now while he’s cheap, especially since I don’t see Reid pounding Pacheco into the Lions’ stiff wall.
TE Brock Wright, Detroit Lions ($1,600)
Wright is a run-blocking specialist and has three bagels on the season. In the other two games, though, he scored a touchdown in each and finished with 8.9 and 11.8 FPTS. Wright played 73% of the snaps in Week 5 as the Lions utilized 12 personnel more to run the ball. I can see a similar strategy against a Chiefs defense that has struggled against the run at times. In addition, keeping Mahomes off the field by grounding-and-pounding seems ideal.
