The wind blew in mists of optimism into Chicago after the the Bears’ offseason. Upgrade offensive line? Check. Draft explosive weapons in the draft? Check. Bring in a new head coach with offensive street cred? Check.
After two losses to open the season, one in humiliating fashion to the Detroit Lions by 31 points, fans shamed the team throughout the streets. But wins over Dallas and Las Vegas have brought that warm, tingly feeling back and, with the bye in Week 5, the Bears are well-rested and looking to continue the positive momentum.
Washington split the first two games with Jayden Daniels under center. It then split the next two games with Marcus Mariota at quarterback. In Week 5, the Commanders traveled to Los Angeles and handled a very good Chargers team, 27-10. Jacory Croskey-Merritt was the headliner, rushing 14 times for 111 yards and two touchdowns.
Washington is 3-0 at home this season and will now host the Bears in primetime. This should be a good one.
Washington is 10th in EPA per dropback with Daniels and Mariota under center. The rushing attack is fourth in EPA per carry and averaging 5.9 yards per carry. Daniels has rushed 26 times for 124 yards. Croskey-Merritt received a season-high 47% of the snaps last week and should start getting over 50% sooner than later. He is by far the best running back on the depth chart.
Chicago could be in trouble because the run defense is allowing a ridiculous 6.1 yards per carry. The EPA per carry is 11th-highest. The pass defense is much better, posting the 13th-best EPA per dropback and have notched seven interceptions. That said, the completion percentage allowed is 73.7%, the second-most generous in the NFL, and the five sacks are tied for the fewest.
On offense, Chicago has been fairly balanced with a pass rate at 56.45%, 18th in the NFL. The EPA per dropback is 13th-best and Caleb Williams has thrown eight touchdowns to only two interceptions. The run game, though, has been bad, averaging only 3.8 yards per carry with the fifth-lowest EPA per carry.
The Commanders run defense hasn’t been great but hasn’t been poor either, allowing 4.0 yards per carry and the 17th-highest EPA per carry. The pass defense has allowed the 10th-highest EPA per dropback. The unit has racked up only two interceptions, but has 15 sacks and a 42.3% pressure rate, the third-highest mark in the league.
DraftKings Sportsbook has WAS -5.5 over CHI with the total at 49.5.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $600K Monday Night Showdown [$200K to 1st] (CHI @ WAS)
Captain’s Picks
Jacory Croskey-Merritt ($13,800 CP): I kind of hate this pick and kind of love it at the same time. I hate it because Croskey-Merritt has yet to receive 50% of the snaps in any game, as Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez Jr. both got 25% of the snaps in Week 5. I kind of love it because last week’s game may have earned Croskey-Merritt the bulk of the work going forward. He was explosive, scored two touchdowns and even received two targets in the passing game. The matchup is a fantastic one as the Bears have allowed 6.1 yards per carry, the most in the league.
UTIL Plays
Caleb Williams ($9,800): Williams has flashed brilliance at times this season while still showing that he’s a young player. He’s attempted at least 30 passes in three of four games and rushed at least five times in every contest, so there is a smidge of rushing equity. Williams has a low of 12.8 FPTS on the season but a high of 29.1 FPTS. The Bears run game is almost non-existent and Chicago should score some points since it had plenty of time to prepare for this one. Williams should have a hand in most of the points Chicago scores.
Rome Odunze ($10,000): Odunze leads the Bears with 35 targets, the most by a wide margin. He’s been pretty consistent and has shown he can access a ceiling. Odunze has put up at least 15 FPTS in every contest with a high of 34.8 FPTS. Michael Penix Jr. carved up this secondary for 313 yards and two touchdowns with Drake London hauling in eight of 10 targets for 110 yards and a touchdown.
Zach Ertz ($5,600): Terry McLaurin is out for this one while Deebo Samuel is questionable. Daniels may have no receivers to throw to. After scoring a touchdown in each of the first two games of the season, Ertz has been a non-factor since, culminating in one target with zero catches in Week 5. He should be more involved in this one.
Fades
Jayden Daniels ($10,800): Well, if I think Croskey-Merritt has a big game, then the chances of Daniels having one are decreased. In Week 5, Daniels put up 17.1 FPTS. In the other two games, Daniels finished with 19.7 and 20.15 FPTS. Nice numbers but worth highest price on the slate good?
THE OUTCOME
I think Washington controls this game on the ground. Chicago should show some things on offense, but the one-dimensionality of the offense could be too much to overcome as the Commanders pressure forces some mistakes.
Final Score: Commanders 20, Bears 17
