After a thrilling pair of ALDS matchups that had plenty of drama and excitement, the Blue Jays and Mariners are set to square off the in American League Championship Series. The two teams each won their division and earned a bye in the Wild Card series before dispatching the Yankees and Tigers in the Division Series. Let’s take a look at the first game in this exciting series from a MLB DFS perspective for this Sunday night.
The pitching matchup in Game 1 definitely tilts in Toronto’s favor since they were able to line up Kevin Gausman ($11,000) once again while the Mariners have to go with Bryce Miller ($10,200), after burning most of their pitching in Friday’s Game 5 against the Mariners.
With Gausman taking on Miller, it should be a great start to the series, but let’s break down what it could look like from a DraftKings Showdown perspective.
Set your DraftKings MLB DFS lineups here: MLB Showdown $60K Bat Flip [$20K to 1st] (SEA @ TOR)
Mariners vs. Blue Jays Game 1 Showdown
Captain’s Picks
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($13,800 CP): I already hyped up Guerrero in my top Player Prop Bets for this contest, and I also see him as a great starting point for DFS Showdown lineups. He didn’t finish the regular season especially strong, but the looked absolutely locked in against the Yankees in the ALDS. He went 9-for-17 (.529) in the series with three homers, nine RBI, and 20 fantasy points per game.
Guerrero has gone 1-for-4 with a walk in his regular-season meetings against Bryce Miller, and he went 6-for-22 (.273) with eight walks and two doubles in his six games against Seattle in the regular season.
When he’s at his best, Guerrero can absolutely carry the Blue Jays’ offense, and he seems to have found his groove so far this postseason.
Josh Naylor ($10,800 CP): Naylor was a great midseason pickup for the Mariners, and he was a huge part of the Mariners’ late-season surge. In his last 19 games of the regular season, Naylor went a scalding 27-for-68 (.397) with five doubles, four homers, and nine stolen bases.
He went 1-for-13 with a walk in the first three playoff games, but he was much better in his last two games, picking up three hits and 15 fantasy points in Game 4 and three hits with 18 fantasy points in Game 5. Naylor is 4-for-11 (.364) in his career against Gausman.
Building around Naylor as your Captain’s Pick leaves lots of salary for the UTIL and can let you put a well-rounded lineup on the field.
UTIL Plays
Kevin Gausman ($11,000): Gausman is a solid option at a UTIL spot, although I think he brings quite enough upside to be a Captain’s Pick play. He had 17.2 fantasy points in the ALDS against the Yankees, going 5 ⅔ innings with one earned run allowed on four hits. He has been held under 20 fantasy points in four straight starts, but has at least 12 fantasy points in three of those four. He also had 11.8 fantasy points when he faced the M’s during the regular season. With a well-rested bullpen, the Blue Jays may not let Gausman go deep in the game either.
Addison Barger ($6,600): Barger had three hits with a double in the clinching Game 4 against the Yankees for 11 fantasy points. He didn’t play in Game 2 against a lefty, but went 4-for-12 (.333) in that series. The 25-year-old hit .243 on the season with 21 homers and a .322 wOBA. Barger had an elite 50.9% hard-hit rate, and continually makes good contact. He can be streaky, but he should be in a favorable spot against Miller, who let lefties hit .258 with a .863 OPS and 10 homers against him on the year.
Victor Robles ($4,000): Robles is a solid play as a bargain UTIL option, since he started all five games against the Tigers. He had nine fantasy points in the close-out Game 5 on Saturday, going 1-for-4 with a double and a walk. He averaged 5.5 fantasy points in the last four games of the series and produced something in each of those four games. He has both power and speed potential, and he’s typically near the bottom of the order for the Mariners, which puts him on base in front of the top of the order when it flips.
Fades
Bryce Miller ($10,200): Miller wouldn’t be the Mariners’ top choice for Game 1, but George Kirby started Game 5 and Luis Castillo and Logan Gilbert worked out of the bullpen in that must-win game. Miller went 4-6 in his 18 regular-season starts and scuffled to a 5.68 ERA and 5.17 FIP. Miller could have to work a lot of innings for the depleted bullpen, so he could get left out there against a red-hot Blue Jays order. He faced the Blue Jays at home during the regular season, giving up seven runs on eight hits and two walks. Miller is high-risk at any price, but paying up for him with so much risk just doesn’t make a lot of sense in Game 1.
The Outcome
The Blue Jays have a huge advantage in rest and the starting pitching matchup. While I think the Mariners will make this a great series, Friday’s big win could take it’s toll Sunday night. Gausman and a well-rested bullpen and offense will be too much for the M’s magic to overcome on the road in Game 1.
Final Score: Toronto 9, Seattle 3
