Big 12 play rolls on in Week 7 of the 2025 college football season with a showdown between No. 9 Texas Tech (5-0) and the Kansas Jayhawks (4-2). With a rowdy crowd at AT&T Jones Stadium in Lubbock, the home team looks to keep its undefeated streak alive and push even further in both the conference standings and upcoming AP Poll.
Read up on the matchup with a Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Kansas Jayhawks prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Texas Tech vs. Kansas prediction, preview
Texas Tech Red Raiders
These Red Raiders clearly mean business with an undefeated record, and while they weren’t tested until their last couple of matchups, it’s apparent this team can compete for a Big 12 title. Texas Tech’s wins include games against Arkansas-Pine Bluff (FCS), Kent State, Oregon State, Utah and Houston, the latter two of which showed plenty of promise against quality teams.
The Texas Tech offense averages a staggering 48.6 points and 568.8 yards per game, the second and first-best marks of any FBS program. Behren Morton orchestrates the offense with a 69.3% completion rate, 1,410 yards, 12 touchdowns and three interceptions. This attack can beat teams through the air or on the ground with receivers Coy Eakin and Caleb Douglas having hauled in 341 and 340 yards worth of passes as well as a combined four touchdowns, and Terrance Carter Jr. and Reggie Virgil each have 250+ receiving yards and four touchdowns. In the rushing game, Cameron Dickey paces the roster with 330 yards and six scores, though J’Koby Williams sits close behind with 308 yards and four touchdowns. It’s a versatile group of weapons and truly one of the best in the nation.
The Red Raiders’ defense also excels, though. They allow just 12.3 points and 260.3 yards per game, both top-10 rankings, as well as a third-down conversion rate of just 24.56%. The secondary may be slightly vulnerable, but a very strong front seven means opposing teams essentially cannot run the ball — TTU allows just 68.8 rushing yards on average at just 2.4 YPC. The 5.63% sack rate comes in around the middle of the pack, but Texas Tech generates plenty of pressure that translates into poor decisions for opposing quarterbacks. The program ranks sixth in interception rate, 37th in passing yards allowed per game, and first in takeaways with 2.8 per contest.
Kansas Jayhawks
On the opposite side, the Kansas Jayhawks have posted a quality campaign at 4-2 but aren’t quite the world-beater their opponents are. Their wins came over Fresno State, Wagner (FCS), West Virginia and UCF, but they also lost to No. 14 Missouri and Cincinnati. It’s a mixed bag at 2-1 in conference so far, but this squad can compete with quality teams at times.
The offense averages 32.8 points and 396 yards per game, but the unit doesn’t convert third downs well at just a 29.09% rate. Experienced signal-caller Jalon Daniels is in the midst of a great year with a 67.3% completion rate, 1,497 yards, 16 touchdowns and just two interceptions. He’s throwing primarily to Emmanuel Henderson Jr., who leads the team with 28 catches for 488 yards and four scores. Two other players, Boen Groen and Cam Pickett, each have at least 230 receiving yards and two and three TDs, respectively. On the ground, Leshon Williams sits in front with 303 yards and five touchdowns, followed by Daniels with 239 rushing yards and one score.
Defensively, the Jayhawks need to shore things up a bit. They allow 23.2 points per game, far from a poor mark, but also give up 422.6 yards (103rd). Kansas’ secondary gives up 243.8 yards on average, while the front seven allows 178.8 yards via the ground. This group doesn’t force takeaways at a high rate with just 1.4 per game, but their 6.28% sack rate does come in slightly higher than Texas Tech’s.
Texas Tech vs. Kansas pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Texas Tech as a 14-point favorite at home on Saturday with -550 odds on the Moneyline. Kansas enters with +410 odds to win outright with the game total set at 59.5 combined points.
The Red Raiders have displayed one of the nation’s most elite offenses over their last five weeks of play, and at this point, it’s near-impossible to pick against them. The offense wins in multiple ways depending on what the defense shows — stop the run and they air it out, sell out to stop the pass and they’ll pound the rock. With the amount of talent the program has, Texas Tech can put up points against anyone. That probably won’t change all that much against the Jayhawks, whose defense isn’t exactly the pinnacle of a shutdown unit. The Red Raiders’ success over Houston last week shows the upside, and they also survived a hard-fought battle against a very good Utah program despite operating with a backup quarterback.
Now, Kansas does have some talent of its own. Daniels is throwing the ball very well this year and his experience clearly goes a long way in the confidence he shows in the pocket. With that in mind, there’s a decent chance the Jayhawks actually can hang in this contest despite the tough matchup for long enough to cover the +14 spread. They’re not exactly a run-focused team, and while the offense probably becomes predictable if they fall behind. However, I do think they have the necessary pieces to compete here and cover as long as Daniels protects the football and can keep things competitive. It’s not without some risk though since if the Texas Tech defense forces a turnover or two, it may be game over sooner than anticipated. At this point, I’d rather give up a smidge of value and take Kansas +14.5 just to be safe and make sure they can sneak in by two touchdowns.
