UFC Rio: Oliveira vs. Gamrot bolstered its main card with a short-notice welterweight scrap between division staple Vicente Luque and rising contender Joel Alvarez. Luque looks to rebound from an up-and-down stretch, while Alvarez makes his debut at 170 pounds following an impressive run at lightweight.
Alvarez is a heavy -535 moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, with Luque — despite fighting in his home country of Brazil — listed as a +400 underdog. The total is set at 1.5 rounds. Here’s my best bet for Saturday’s welterweight showdown.
Joel Alvarez to Win By KO/TKO/DQ (+130)
Luque (23-11-1) has been a linchpin of the welterweight division, clashing with the likes of Stephen Thompson, Tyron Woodley, and Belal Muhammad. Known for his action-packed style, he’s racked up 11 knockouts and nine submissions — while also absorbing plenty of damage himself. But despite his entertaining fights, Luque has never broken into true title contention, and his momentum has stalled in recent years. Luque has dropped four of his last six bouts, most recently suffering a second-round submission loss to Kevin Holland in June.
Alvarez (22-3) moves up to welterweight after struggling with the cut down to 155 pounds. He enters the UFC Octagon Saturday with serious momentum, having won seven of his last eight fights — his only loss in that span coming against current No. 2 contender Arman Tsarukyan in Feb. 2022. All 22 of Alvarez’s wins have come by stoppage, including 17 submissions and five knockouts. He most recently finished Drakkar Klose with a first-round flying knee in Dec. 2024. But Alvarez will have to be extra cautious against Luque — one of the most experienced fighters in the division with elite defensive grappling and submission pedigree.
That said, don’t expect this one to go the distance, as both fighters are extremely aggressive and rarely leave their bouts in the hands of the judges. In the heat of the battle, Alvarez should get the better of the exchanges. While they’re similar in age, Alvarez looks every bit the surging contender, while Luque resembles a fading veteran whose best days are behind him. And while Alvarez has yet to have his chin tested at 170 pounds, the 6’3″ fighter was already massive for a lightweight, so it should be a non-issue. Luque’s chin, meanwhile, has looked increasingly compromised after multiple wars.
Look for Alvarez to employ his reach advantage, precise striking, and relentless pace to overwhelm Luque and secure another highlight finish.
