The UFC Rio prelims showcase an exciting flyweight battle between Jafel Filho and Clayton Carpenter. Both fighters are eager to bounce back from unanimous decision losses and continue their climb up the 125-pound rankings.
Carpenter has a slight edge at -118 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook, while Filho is listed at -102. The total is set at 2.5 rounds. Here’s my best bet for Saturday’s flyweight showdown.
Jafel Filho Moneyline (-102)
Jafel Filho (16-4) made his UFC debut in March 2023 after earning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series. He’s had mixed results in the Octagon, going 2-2 so far, punctuated by a UD loss to Allan Nascimento in May. Still, the 32-year-old Brazilian has flashed serious potential, with back-to-back first-round submission victories over Daniel Barez and Ode Osbourne. A dangerous grappler, Filho boasts 10 submission victories — eight of them by rear-naked choke.
Clayton Carpenter (8-1) aims to bounce back from his first career loss, suffering a unanimous decision defeat to Tagir Ulanbekov at UFC 311 in January. The 29-year-old American is a strong wrestler with a dangerous ground game, entering his last bout on the heels of two straight submission victories, giving him four in his career.
This stylistic matchup should produce plenty of exciting grappling exchanges — moments I believe should favor Filho. While his takedown defense is lacking, the Brazilian is extremely dangerous off his back and a constant submission threat.
Carpenter is an elite wrestler, but his relentless pursuit of takedowns often leaves him vulnerable to guillotines and his back exposed. Enter Filho’s signature rear-naked choke. With his home crowd behind him, I expect the Brazilian grappler to capitalize on any mistake and hand Carpenter a second consecutive loss.
