I gave this one out on Monday’s DKN Daily Bets podcast, and would be fine laying out to -140 on the moneyline or -2.5 if you choose to lay the points. Michigan on the road is generally a fade for me this season. I went against the Wolverines in their first road stint at Oklahoma, which was a wire-to-wire winner, but passed on them at Nebraska.
While USC doesn’t have the defense the Sooners do, the spot really sets up well for the Trojans, and I’m not sure the Wolverines can keep up offensively. The total on this game has been bet up early in the week, which suggests USC should set the pace in this game. The Trojans are off a bad loss two weeks ago in a game at Illinois that kicked off at 9am west coast time. Now they’ve had two weeks to chew on that loss and prepare for Michigan during a bye week.
Michigan has not been all that impressive this season, and going on the road is where I want to fade the freshman quarterback and the Wolverines’ offense. USC won’t shut them down, but keeping up with the Trojans at home will be a task. USC scored 33 at Purdue and 32 at Illinois, but at home has dropped 73 and 59 against cupcakes, along with 45 in the only conference home game against Michigan State.
I think the Trojans get into the 30’s again, and I’m not sure Michigan can get there.
CFB Pick: USC ML (-125)
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