Nearly 1/3 of the way through the 2025 NFL regular season, the Dallas Cowboys are producing some of the most exciting football around the league. In Week 6, a high-flying offense led by Dak Prescott travels for a date against the Carolina Panthers as Bryce Young sees a chance to bounce back against a soft defense. Does Dallas win again, or can Carolina spoil the day with Jerry Jones watching from the boxes?
Get ready for the Week 6 matchup with a Cowboys vs. Panthers prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cowboys vs. Panthers prediction, preview
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys turned heads (and not in a good way) with the hire of Brian Schottenheimer as head coach this past offseason. Expectations were set low but America’s most talked-about franchise has actually strung together a couple of great games after going punch-for-punch with the Packers in a tie before beating the Jets 37-22 last week.
The team’s just 2-2-1 but will clearly go as the offense does with 30.2 PPG and an NFL-best 406.6 yards per game. By all accounts, this is a top-10 offense with a 43.33% third-down conversion rate, 6.1 yards per play and 3.4 touchdowns per contest as well. Dak Prescott’s playing MVP-caliber football and leading the offense to 272.2 passing yards per game, third-most, and he’s thrown 10 touchdowns on the campaign. That’s despite top target CeeDee Lamb missing multiple games as he remains sidelined with a high-ankle sprain, but in the meantime George Pickens and Jake Ferguson have stepped up admirably. A resurgent Javonte Williams also assumes a workhorse role for a rushing attack averaging 134.4 yards on the ground, and he’s run for 447 yards with five touchdowns on the ground.
The defense does raise some questions, though. The Cowboys allow 30.8 PPG along with an average of 412 yards of offense, both bottom-three marks in the NFL. Opponents convert on third down at a nearly 55% rate, the league’s most efficient, and Dallas also allows red-zone scores on a rather high 65% of drives. The run-game defense isn’t exactly great at 22nd in average yards allowed and 17th in YPC, but the Dallas pass defense comes in dead-last by giving up 284.6 yards per contest with bottom-three marks in completion percentage and yards per pass.
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers are 2-3 and have put forth some contrasting performances in recent weeks. They lost the first two games of the season before blowing out the Falcons 30-0 in Week 3, and while they beat the Dolphins l27-24 last week, Carolina also suffered a 42-13 loss to the Patriots in the game before. It’s tough to know what version of this team shows up to play on any given Sunday.
The offense averages 20.4 PPG with an average of 315 yards, and they convert third downs at a 39.39% rate. All of those marks fall just outside the top-20 teams, but the Panthers are scoring at the 10th-best clip in the red zone at 66.67%. A massive breakout game for backup halfback Rico Dowdle carried Carolina to victory last week, and with Chuba Hubbard still sidelined, the former Cowboy once again assumes the starting role for a ground attack averaging 128 yards with 4.8 YPC, both 10th-best in the league. Bryce Young’s play under center has been incredibly inconsistent, and the passing attack posts just 187 yards per contest with 5.6 yards per pass despite throwing the eighth-most of any team. On the bright side, rookie wideout Tetairoa McMillan looks the part of an alpha-level talent and Jalen Coker makes his return from IR as well.
On the other side of the ball, the Panthers allow 23.8 PPG while holding opponents to 311.6 yards, 12th-best. They’re also allowing third-down conversions at just a 37.5% rate, also 12th, that’s another positive sign for growth. Carolina doesn’t truly excel at limiting the ground or the air game, but they’re not bad over the season’s sample in either facet with yardage marks that sit 14th against the run and 10th against the pass, and the secondary also comes in at 13th in opponent completion percentage. However, the Panthers don’t force many turnovers with just one per contest, and the pass-rush ranks a paltry 31st in sack percentage.
Cowboys vs. Panthers pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Cowboys enter as three-point favorites with -175 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Panthers hold +145 odds of an outright upset with the game total set at 49.5, second-highest on the slate besides the Sunday Night Football matchup between the Chiefs and Lions.
If there’s one certainty in this game, it’s that points probably won’t be hard to come by. The Dallas offense keeps turning heads with high-scoring performances, and as long as Prescott keeps playing at his current level, that probably won’t change any time soon. Jaycee Horn is a great cornerback and Tre’von Moehrig is a quality safety, but when this Cowboys attack hits its stride, it’s nearly impossible to stop.
Now, the same can’t be said for the defense since after all, that’s one of the league’s worst units. Dallas doesn’t generate many sacks or turnovers, so Young should have time to work in the pocket and pick this defense apart. Similarly, Dowdle sees a positive matchup on the ground and even McMillan sees a mismatch advantage despite the attention he likely commands from Daron Bland and Trevon Diggs. However, Young must play his best football to keep up with the high-scoring offense across from him. Dallas can put up points on the ground and through the air, and if the Cowboys get the lead early, Carolina will be left to play catch-up. In that case, the Panthers can’t waste possessions… and it’s tough to predict efficiency with Young’s on-again/off-again play lately.
I’m projecting points for both sides, but especially for the road team. Dallas should comfortably win, so scoop up additional value with an alt spread.
