On Saturday, a loaded NHL slate sees some fantastic matchups throughout the evening. Few hold as much excitement and as strong a rivalry angle as the game between the Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars. Last time these teams squared off, Mikko Rantanen buried his former team in the postseason with a third-quarter hat trick… will Dallas repeat that win, or can Colorado down a rival to gain some momentum in the season’s first week?
Here’s an Avalanche vs. Stars prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Saturday’s contest.
Avalanche vs. Stars prediction, preview
As mentioned in the intro, there’s certainly some history between these franchises. In the last two postseasons alone, the Stars bounced the Avalanche to end their hopes of a Stanley Cup, and last year’s result was even more stunning. Mikko Rantanen, a former franchise staple in Colorado, single-handedly willed Dallas to victory with three goals in the final 12 minutes of last season’s first-round Game 7… against his old team. This matchup is surely personal for him, and with the division rivalry as well as the playoff matchups between these sides in the past, fisticuffs aren’t out of the question on Saturday.
Both of these teams started the new year with wins. For the Avalanche, those came at home with a 4-1 finish over the Kings before a 2-1 victory over the Mammoth; the Stars’ victory was a 5-4 final over the Jets. Colorado started slow but played dominant hockey during the second and third periods, but Dallas did the opposite with a strong first two periods before a near-collapse down the stretch. Both lineups are star-studded at the top — Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar and Martin Necas on one side with Rantanen, Jason Robertson and Miro Heiskanen on the other. There’s also depth throughout both rosters even on the third and fourth lines, with a slight edge to the Avalanche in that regard. However, the Stars have the upper hand in Jake Oettinger between the pipes against one of Scott Wedgewood and Mackenzie Blackwood.
Both sides play fast, finesse-based hockey, but Dallas’ new head coach Glen Gulutzan wants to make his team more physical. That didn’t exactly happen in their first game with just 21 hits, but the Avalanche logged 45 across their two contests thus far. How the battle of physicality shakes out will make a huge difference in this one, but it’s natural to assume both sides up the ante against a rival. One stat to note is that the Avs were actually out-shot in each of their wins with an average of 25 shots for per game. Dallas logged an impressive 37 in their lone appearance which likely comes down a bit, but the first sample against a good Jets defense did provide signs of encouragement.
Avalanche vs. Stars pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Avalanche as -130 favorites on the Moneyline tonight, while the Stars come in at +110. The total sits at 6.5 combined goals.
Games between these teams tend to result in some instant classics, and there’s no denying the level of competitiveness which will be on display on Saturday. Most franchises have a hard time matching the star power of MacKinnon and Makar, but Dallas certainly does have the top-end players to do so. In the middle lines, Gabriel Landeskog, Brock Nelson and Valeri Nichushkin can go toe-to-toe with Wyatt Johnston, Matt Duchene, and Tyler Seguin. Expect plenty of shots on goal in this one, and likely lots of goals to follow.
Wedgewood played very well in Colorado’s first two games with a .966 SV% and 1.00 GAA, allowing just two goals on 58 shot attempts. He’s yet to face a team with the Stars’ talent though, and if Blackwood returns from injury in this one, he may be hard-pressed to perform in his first start of the year against a team that may be in his head after last year’s postseason. Expect Dallas to come out of the gate swinging in their second outing of the season and for the Avalanche to do the same. In a contest with plenty of firepower, an alt total of over 5.5 goals makes a lot of sense at -150 odds since five of last postseason’s seven meetings went over that total. Going back even further, eight of these teams’ last 10 meetings saw at least six goals scored dating back to the start of last season.
