There are some great games on the NFL Week 6 slate. This is a look at my best bets for NFL Week 6. You can place all of these bets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 6 Best Bets
49ers +3.5 at Buccaneers
Kyle Shanahan has put on a coaching masterclass so far this season. Just like the Ravens in the AFC, the 49ers have been the most plagued team by injuries in the NFC. However, unlike the Ravens, the 49ers have found a way to keep on winning. The 49ers have missed Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, Ricky Pearsall, Jauan Jennings, Nick Bosa and many others for stretches of this season. However, Shanahan has been winning games with Mac Jones throwing to backup pass catchers, all without his All-Pro edge rusher. This week, they head to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers, once again without Brock Purdy. The 49ers have a great chance to win this game and should keep it within a field goal to cover the spread.
The Buccaneers have been one of the luckiest teams in football this season. They are 4-1, but they have yet to beat a team by more than a field goal. The Falcons missed a field goal to send the game to overtime, then the Bucs scored in the final minute of the game to beat both the Texans and Jets. The following week, they lost to an Eagles team that’s far from its best early on this season. Then last week, Tampa Bay scored 10 points in the final two minutes to beat the Seahawks. San Francisco ranks fifth in the NFL in offensive success rate, while the Buccaneers rank 23rd. The 49ers’ offensive success this season is much more sustainable than Tampa Bay’s. The 49ers have a great chance to win this game, but at the very least, Tampa Bay should keep up its streak of not being able to win by more than three points.
Falcons +4.5 vs. Bills
The Bills have been one of the best teams in football over the past few years. Josh Allen is undeniably a top-three quarterback in the league and is the defending NFL MVP. However, it’s hard to know how good the team really is this season. They mounted an incredible comeback to beat the Ravens in Week 1, but the Ravens have been a disaster ever since. Their other wins then came against the Jets, Dolphins and Saints, three of the worst teams in the NFL. Once they had to play a competent team again, the Patriots, they lost. While the Bills are coming off that emotional loss to a division rival in primetime, the Falcons are coming off a well-timed bye week.
Atlanta has been up and down to start this season. It is Michael Penix Jr.’s first full season as an NFL starter, and there are bound to be some bad moments mixed in with the good. However, Falcons fans have to be happy with the way that Penix has played so far. The Falcons outdueled the Buccaneers in Week 1, but missed a field goal to send the game to overtime. They have since picked up wins against the Vikings and the Commanders. Atlanta is underrated defensively, ranking in the top seven in the NFL in defensive EPA/dropback and defensive dropback success rate. They should limit Josh Allen’s ability to push the ball downfield. The Falcons’ all-world running back Bijan Robinson should break some explosive plays and give Atlanta a great chance to win the game, keeping them inside the number at the very least.
Six-Point Teaser: Colts -1 & Lions +8.5
The Colts have been one of the surprise teams of the NFL season so far. Daniel Jones is playing at an incredibly high level, ranking third among qualified quarterbacks in adjusted EPA/play. He has been getting it done with his arm and his legs, utilizing his great weapons like Michael Pittman Jr. and Tyler Warren. Jonathan Taylor has also been the best halfback in the NFL so far this season. He leads the league in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns, averaging 96 rushing yards per game. The Colts have decimated the bad teams they have played so far this season. They beat Miami, Tennessee and Las Vegas all by at least 21 points. After their awful loss to Tennessee last week, Arizona could be in a bad mental state. Kyler Murray is also not at 100% coming into this game. All of this adds up to the Colts getting the win, making them a great teaser piece this week.
The Lions have been exceptional over the past four weeks. Since Week 2, they rank first in the NFL in offensive EPA/play and second in offensive success rate. The offense looks like the well-oiled machine it has been in recent years, even without Ben Johnson calling plays. This will be a tough matchup against the Chiefs, but the Lions should be able to manufacture enough offense to hang with Kansas City the whole way. It is a coin flip game where either team could pull out the one big play late to win. However, that makes the Lions a great teaser piece up to 8.5 points.
Justin Herbert o252.5 Passing Yards (-111)
Justin Herbert needs a get-right game, and this matchup against Miami is the ideal spot. Through the first three weeks of the season, it looked as if Herbert had taken a leap forward in his game. He tore up the Chiefs, Raiders and Broncos, knocking out each of his divisional rivals to start the season. However, Herbert threw two interceptions in the Chargers’ loss to the Giants, then was unable to get anything going downfield against the Commanders in a loss last week. This Dolphins’ secondary is Herbert’s chance to get his confidence back. They rank 30th in the NFL in defensive EPA/dropback and 32nd in defensive dropback success rate. There is expected to be ideal weather in Miami, and Herbert should be able to sit back in the pocket and pick apart this Dolphins secondary all day, getting him over this prop number.
