The Aces are one win away from their third WNBA title in four years. It didn’t look this way early in the season, however. Las Vegas was a .500 club at the start of August, but it made a lineup change shortly after that changed the outlook for the rest of the season.
The Aces rattled off 16 straight wins to end the regular season and are 8-3 in the postseason with A’ja Wilson is at the helm of this almost unbeatable squad. They could cap off this run on Friday, Oct. 10 in Game 4 of the WNBA Finals.
Las Vegas is a three-point favorite and -148 on the moneyline, while Phoenix is +124 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at 163 points.
Here are my favorite player prop bets for Game 4 between the Aces and Mercury.
Aces vs. Mercury Best Prop Bets
A’ja Wilson over 25.5 points (-115)
Has their ever been a doubt about Wilson’s ability? Well if there was, Game 3’s performance should put that to rest. The four-time MVP and three-time Defensive Player of the Year posted 34 points, 14 rebounds, four assists and three blocks in Game 3. Oh, and she nailed the game-winning bucket.
Wilson and the Aces can close out the series in Phoenix and claim another WNBA title. These are the moments that Wilson shines, with Game 3’s performance the most recent example.
Wilson scored 21 and 28 in Games 1 and 2, respectively, so she’s hit the over on this mark twice in three games. Her line increased from 24.5 to 25.5 from Games 3 to 4, but the movement doesn’t change my process. Trust in Wilson.
Alyssa Thomas to record a triple-double (+310)
Here’s another duplicate bet from my Game 3 best bets, but it’s for good reason. My argument then was based on the amount of times Alyssa Thomas came close to a triple-double. Before Game 3, she had one triple-double in nine playoff games, but she came within three counting stats of a triple-double five times.
After Game 3, she once again came so close to a triple-double. The six-time All-Star finished with 14 points, 12 rebounds and nine assists. Had DeWanna Bonner made the game-tying jumper with 0.3 seconds, Thomas would have earned her 10th assist.
Thomas is averaging 16.9 points, 8.7 rebounds and 8.7 assists per game through 10 postseason matches this year. Here are each of her outputs:
- Sept. 14 vs. Liberty: 14p, 9r, 8a
- Sept. 17 vs. Liberty: 15p, 6r, 7a
- Sept. 19 vs. Liberty: 20p, 11r, 11a
- Sept. 21 vs. Lynx: 18p, 8r, 7a
- Sept. 23 vs. Lynx: 19p, 8r, 13a
- Sept. 26 vs. Lynx: 21p, 9r, 8a
- Sept. 28 vs. Lynx: 23p, 8r, 10a
- Oct. 3 vs. Aces: 15p, 10r, 9a
- Oct. 5 vs. Aces: 10p, 6r, 5a
- Oct. 8 vs. Aces: 14p, 12r, 9a
While she only has one triple-double in 10 games, she’s a couple counting stats off in more than half of the other games. There’s great value at +310, so let’s ride once again — perhaps for the final time this season.