The WNBA Finals continue Friday with Game 4 between the Mercury and Aces. Las Vegas holds a 3-0 series lead and can clinch the WNBA title with a win. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Las Vegas is favored by three points and this game carries a total of 163 points.
Below, I break down Game 4 between the Mercury and Aces, and give a pick for this contest.
Mercury vs. Aces preview, prediction
The Aces went into Phoenix and took a commanding 3-0 series lead with an impressive 90-88 win in Game 3 on Wednesday. All tied up with five seconds left in the contest, Las Vegas went to A’ja Wilson, the league MVP, and she hit a game-winning mid-range fadeaway to seal the deal for the Aces.
Las Vegas led by as many as 17 points in this contest and are now 6-1 vs. the Mercury this season. The sole loss came with Wilson out of the lineup.
Wilson’s game winner in Game 3 was the icing on the cake for a signature performance from the four-time MVP. She finished with 34 points, 14 rebounds and three blocks, and Jackie Young added 21 points and nine assists. Jewell Loyd delivered 16 points and seven rebounds off the bench.
Despite the deflating loss, the Mercury’s big three played very well. Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper scored 24 and 17 points, respectively, while Alyssa Thomas flirted with a triple-double, posting 14 points, 12 rebounds and nine assists. On top of this, Phoenix finally got some notable production from a bench player, as DeWanna Bonner scored a season-high 25 points.
While this all was encouraging for the Mercury, things took a scary turn early in the fourth quarter when Sabally suffered a concussion. It took about 10 minutes for her to get up and be helped to the locker room. Phoenix ruled her out for Friday’s win-or-go home Game 4.
Sabally has been sensational this postseason and arguably the primary the reason that the Mercury made the WNBA Finals. Phoenix went 4-1 in the regular season without the three-time All-Star, but the team’s offense rating plummeted from 108.4 to 100.8 in those contests. With Sabally sidelined, Thomas and Copper will both take on higher usage rates, and Bonner will see a huge role likely as the replacement starter for Sabally. Although these three may put up strong numbers, the team has struggled to keep up with the Aces even when Sabally is healthy. Things are about to get even more difficult with the veteran missing.
Mercury vs. Aces pick, best bet
The Aces have been much better than the Mercury this season and with Sabally sidelined, it’s very difficult to envision Phoenix beating Las Vegas in Game 4.
The Aces should complete the sweep and clinch the franchise’s third WNBA Championship in the last four years with a win Friday. Las Vegas should be favored by more than three points for this contest
