The American Conference suddenly finds itself with a couple of teams receiving national acclaim, and on Friday night, these two programs go toe-to-toe in Denton, Texas. The North Texas Mean Green (5-0) host the No. 24 South Florida Bulls (4-1) for the first-ever sellout at DATCU Stadium. The Bulls are ranked and the Mean Green received votes in the last couple of AP Polls as well, so this shapes up as a top matchup that may shape the outcome of this conference.
Let’s dive into the details with a North Texas vs. South Florida prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook.
North Texas vs. South Florida prediction, preview
North Texas Mean Green
The Mean Green have only received AP votes a couple of times in the program’s history, but it appears this year’s team may just be the best ever fielded in Denton. Only 15 teams at the FBS level remain undefeated, and North Texas is one of them. Those wins came over Lamar (FCS), Western Michigan, Washington State, Army and South Alabama, so the strength of schedule leaves a bit to be desired. Tonight’s game is the toughest battle yet by far, but there’s no denying what UNT has shown through their first five games of the campaign.
The Mean Green offense, led by freshman quarterback Drew Mestemaker, looks like one of the best in the nation. UNT ranks fifth in the country with 43.3 points per game, as well as 432.3 yards per game which ranks 28th. Mestemaker’s story is an unbelievable one — he arrived as a walk-on last season and started UNT’s bowl game despite his most recent start at quarterback coming in his freshman year of high school. Despite the inexperience at the position, he’s completed 67.9% of his passes for 1,247 yards and 11 touchdowns without an interception in his first campaign under center. He’s played quality ball while throwing passes to a trio of wideouts with 200 yards or more, with Miles Coleman pacing the group with 23 catches and 219 yards. The rushing attack is where the Mean Green truly excel though, averaging 193.8 yards per game on the ground and 5.7 YPC, the 27th and 12th-best marks in the nation. Makenzie McGill II leads the team with 318 yards and four touchdowns, while backfield mate Caleb Hawkins has 307 yards and seven scores via the ground.
The North Texas defense used to be a weak point, but the unit has managed some respectable numbers. The Mean Green allow 25 points and 365.5 yards per game, both top-70 marks, and they limit opponents to just 4.8 yards per play. The secondary shuts opponents down with top-15 rankings in completion percentage (55.67%), passing yards per game (147.8) and interception percentage (5.15%), so USF will have to run the ball. However, UNT doesn’t stop the run well with 217.8 rushing yards allowed per contest, 125th overall. The run funnel approach has worked though.
South Florida Bulls
USF enters this game at No. 24 in the latest AP Poll and room to improve. The Bulls are 4-1 thus far with standout wins over Boise State and Florida, plus expected victories over South Carolina State (FCS) and Charlotte. The lone loss came in a rivalry matchup against Miami, which ended with a 49-12 final score. They’re legitimate contenders for the American Conference title and could potentially grow into a College Football Playoff competitor if things work out in their favor.
The South Florida offense is among the better units in the sport. The Bulls average 29.5 points and 431.5 yards per game, 49th and 29th overall, and they also average 6.0 yards per play. The program runs a very balanced attack which leans slightly toward the run, posting 173 yards on the ground per contest and 4.7 YPC. Quarterback Bryum Brown paces the rushing game with 282 yards and three touchdowns, but the Bulls otherwise deploy a backfield by committee with four halfbacks carrying the ball at least 20 times for 100 or more yards. Of that group, Sam Franklin leads with 186 yards and two scores, followed by Cartevious Norton’s 166 yards and pair of touchdowns. In the passing game, Brown has completed 61.3% of throws for 1,194 yards and 10 touchdowns, but he’s also tosses four interceptions and taken seven sacks in the process. His top target is Chas Nimrod with 19 catches for 421 yards and three scores, and Keshaun Singleton sits second with 14 grabs for 240 yards and two trips to the end zone.
Defensively, USF’s overall numbers rank similarly to this week’s opponents. The Bulls’ defense allows 24.5 points and 397 yards per contest, 61st and 83rd. They don’t truly excel in any particular area with 147.5 rushing yards and 249.5 passing yards allowed on average. USF doesn’t generate many sacks, but the defense does come up with takeaways — 2.5 per game in fact, second-most of any program.
North Texas vs. South Florida pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists North Texas as -2.5 home favorites with -130 odds to win on the Moneyline. South Florida holds +110 odds to win outright on the road with the game total set at 67.5 combined points.
This matchup feels like a real treat for college football fans on Friday night. Both sides roll out quality teams this season and have some appeal as potential conference winners, so watch for a close game throughout in a hard-fought battle. This UNT offense is truly special, but they’ll end up tested by USF this evening. The Bulls present a real challenge on that end, but the Mean Green are able to score both on the ground and through the air. With a multidimensional attack led by a quality quarterback and halfback, they shouldn’t have too many issues moving the ball even against good competition. The real question for this one is whether the UNT defense can hold up against their opponents’ ground game, but they should shut down the pass as usual and force USF’s hand.
Both sides force turnovers at a high rate, and with the talent on both sides, this game could come down to whoever holds the ball last. I’m taking UNT -2.5 and banking on the offense to come through as it has in pretty much every week of the season thus far. Strap in — this should be a fun one.
