These are my picks to win every Week 6 NFL game straight up, tiered by confidence level and ranked within each tier.
You can bet on any of these games at DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 6 Confidence Picks
High Confidence
Packers over Bengals
It has been a strange start to the season for Green Bay. Through the first two weeks of the season, it looked like the best team in the NFL. Then, it inexplicably lost to the Browns, followed by an overtime tie against the Cowboys. Last week, the Packers had a bye week to reset and should come back with a more focused effort. Joe Flacco will be trying to run the Bengals’ offense after being there for only a couple of days, which should give Green Bay a big advantage. Ranking by EPA+CPOE composite, this is the second-best quarterback in the NFL against the 33rd-best. The Packers will get this win over the Bengals.
Colts over Cardinals
The Colts have been the positive surprise of this season so far. Daniel Jones has been playing at an incredibly high level, ranking third in the NFL in adjusted EPA/play. The Colts are the only team in the NFL that ranks in the top four in both offensive and defensive EPA/play. The Cardinals threw away last week’s game against the Titans and the vibes could be down in Arizona. They just keep finding ways to lose games, and the Colts should find a way to win at home.
Broncos over Jets
The Broncos are coming off a massive win over the Eagles. Their defense, which was the best in the league last year, has avoided a real drop-off. They rank third in the NFL in defensive EPA/play so far this season. Denver isn’t explosive on offense, but it should move the ball efficiently against an awful Jets defense. New York ranks 29th in the NFL in defensive EPA/play and should have a tough time getting stops. On the other side, the Broncos’ defense should slow them down and make this a comfortable win.
Eagles over Giants
The Eagles took their first loss of the season last week against the Broncos. This is the perfect spot for them to bounce back on Thursday Night Football against the Giants. New York just lost to the Saints last week, in a game where it looked like the team of rookies that it is. Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo both made mistakes, and Dart clearly missed having the incredible Malik Nabers as a target. The Giants rank 28th in offensive EPA/play and should get completely shut down by the Eagles. Philadelphia has offensive issues to work out for the long term, but it should win this one with its defense.
Steelers over Browns
The Steelers are coming off a bye week with a chance to take real control of the AFC North. Between the injury to Joe Burrow in Cincinnati, the failed Joe Flacco experiment in Cleveland, and the disastrous start to the season for the Ravens, the Steelers have a great shot at winning the division. Once the Ravens get Lamar Jackson back, they could go on a big run. However, at 3-1, the Steelers are in the driver’s seat. They had an early bye in Week 5, while the Browns had to travel to London and back. That gives the Steelers a big rest and preparation advantage. Pittsburgh should control this game and get the win.
Medium Confidence
Raiders over Titans
The Raiders are not in a good place through the first few weeks of the season. They were picked by some as a dark-horse playoff contender after forming an offense of Geno Smith, Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers, led by Pete Carroll. However, Bowers has had a slow start and Geno Smith looks like the Smith from the Jets, not the one from the Seahawks. However, Ashton Jeanty has gotten rolling, which is great news for Las Vegas fans. Jeanty has over 100 scrimmage yards each of the past two weeks and should feast against a Titans team that ranks 27th in defensive EPA/rush. Tennessee needed multiple miracle bounces to finally win a game last week, and should go back its losing ways against the Raiders.
Chargers over Dolphins
The Chargers are another team that really impressed through the first several weeks of the season, but have now lost back-to-back games. They lost on the road to the Giants in Jaxson Dart’s first-career start. Then, they couldn’t get any offense going in a suffocating loss to the Commanders. This is their chance to bounce back offensively against one of the worst defenses in the league. Miami ranks 31st in defensive EPA/play and dead-last in defensive success rate. The Chargers should move it against them and control the game, getting a much-needed win.
Patriots over Saints
The Patriots are buzzing after their huge win over the Bills. Drake Maye announced himself as the real deal on the national stage in that victory. It was also a big week for the Saints, as Spencer Rattler got his first-career win. However, the Saints were the beneficiary of five Giants turnovers. They are unlikely to get that lucky twice in a row. The Patriots’ offense is hard to stop, ranking sixth in the NFL in EPA per drop back. They should be able to move the ball against the Saints and get a win here.
Commanders over Bears
This is a rematch of last year’s battle between the two top picks in the 2024 NFL Draft. Early on last season, the Commanders beat the Bears on an incredible Hail Mary by Jayden Daniels. The play seemingly set the tone for the rest of the season for both teams. The Commanders went on to make the NFC Championship Game, while the Bears had a dumpster fire of a season. Chicago will want revenge here, but is unlikely to get it. Washington ranks top ten in the NFL in both offensive and defensive success rate. It knows how to control a game on both sides of the ball and should win this one.
Bills over Falcons
This is an exciting Monday Night Football game in Atlanta. The Falcons are coming off a bye week and are looking to pull a big upset to move to 3-2 on the season. Meanwhile, the Bills are looking to bounce back after losing to the Patriots last week. Atlanta has a path to the upset, but ultimately, Josh Allen should make the Josh Allen plays required to win the game. Atlanta ranks 26th in defensive rushing success rate. The Bills could keep it on the ground and run slow, methodical drives to dominate the time of possession. At the end of the day, Josh Allen will find a way to win.
Coin-Flip Games
Cowboys over Panthers
The Cowboys have one of the best offenses in the NFL. They rank third in offensive EPA/play and sixth in offensive success rate. The Panthers rank 21st in the NFL in defensive EPA/play and should struggle to get stops. The Cowboys have scored 37 or more points in three of five games this year. Their offense should simply be too much for Carolina, getting them the win.
Chiefs over Lions
The Chiefs and Lions face off in one of the most fun games of the weekend. Things are going great for the Lions, while the Chiefs just lost a tight one in primetime against the Jaguars to drop to 2-3. The Chiefs really need a victory to get back to .500 and should find a way at home. The Lions have been the better team this season, but Patrick Mahomes at home in a must-win spot is hard to fade. The Chiefs’ offense has been great, ranking sixth in the NFL in EPA/play. If they can avoid any huge mistakes, they should find a way to win.
49ers over Buccaneers
The 49ers have been amazing this season. Kyle Shanahan has flexed his muscles after a rocky 2024 season in San Francisco. Despite injuries to Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and others, Shanahan has schemed up ways to win. Mac Jones has done a solid job replacing Purdy and should be ready if called upon again this week. The Buccaneers have found ways to win some wild games this season, but are continually playing with fire. This should be a fun game between two great offenses, but I am backing San Francisco to pull off the upset.
Seahawks over Jaguars
Seattle is explosive offensively and has been hard for any defense to stop this season. Sam Darnold has been fantastic, ranking first among all quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE composite. The Jaguars’ defense has been solid this season, but might not be able to get the stops against Seattle. The Jaguars just got a huge win on Monday night against the Chiefs. This should be a back-and-forth battle, but the extra day of rest and preparation the Seahawks got could be what gets them the win.
