The Chicago Cubs had their backs against the wall on Wednesday night — but fortunately for them, it was covered in ivy.
Back at Wrigley Field after dropping the first two games of the NL Division Series to the Milwaukee Brewers, the Cubs erupted for four runs in the bottom of the first inning. The early burst was just enough to stave off a late Brew Crew rally, holding on for a 4-3 win and keeping their season alive.
Still trailing 1-2 in the series against the hottest team of the regular season, Chicago faces a steep uphill climb. But a win at Wrigley on Thursday night would force a decisive Game 5 — and in October, anything is possible.
First pitch is scheduled for 9:08 p.m. ET. Milwaukee enters as a -120 moneyline favorite, while Chicago is a +102 underdog on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at seven runs.
Cubs vs. Brewers preview
Thursday night brings a rematch between Game 1 starters — and last time, Milwaukee delivered a knockout blow.
Brewers ace Freddy Peralta entered October on the heels of his best season yet, pitching his way into Cy Young conversations with a 2.70 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 204 strikeouts across 33 starts. He deployed his deep arsenal to keep hitters off balance all year — and that’s exactly what he did to the Cubs on Oct. 4. The 29-year-old right-hander spun 5.2 innings of two-run ball, allowing four hits and three walks while striking out nine.
While Peralta kept the Cubs at bay, his offense returned the favor by jumping all over Chicago ace Matthew Boyd. Pitching on just three days’ rest, the 34-year-old southpaw was chased before he could escape the first inning, surrendering four hits and two earned runs in just two-thirds of a frame.
But with a full five days’ rest this time, Boyd remains more than capable of turning in a quality start. He’s still the veteran who posted a 3.21 ERA, 1.09, and 154 punch-outs over 31 starts this season. And he’s still the All-Star who held the San Diego Padres to just one earned run over 4.1 innings in Game 1 of the Wild Card.
Cubs vs. Brewers pick, best bet
The Cubs, owners of one of MLB’s most potent offenses during the regular season, have gone ice-cold in the Division Series. Among the eight clubs competing, Chicago ranks dead last with 18 hits, 10 runs scored, a .189 average, and a .274 OBP. The outlook seemed to shift in the first inning of Game 3, when Michael Busch launched his second leadoff homer of the series to kickstart a four-run outburst — but the offense went silent after that, going just 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position. Busch has provided occasional power surges, and Nico Hoerner continues to rattle off hits, but the Cubs will need more production against a Brewers squad capable of putting up runs in a hurry.
Milwaukee’s scorching hot bats have yet to cool in the October chill. In direct contrast to the Cubs, the Brewers lead all NL Division Series teams with 31 hits, 19 runs scored, a .301 average, and a .365 OBP. In the first two games of the series, Milwaukee erupted for three or more runs in an inning four times — including a six-spot to open Game 1.
Best Bet: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 Runs (+142)
The Brew Crew can end games in a single inning — and on Thursday night, one fiery frame could be all it takes to end Chicago’s season.
Strong Lean: Over 0.5 Runs – 1st Inning (+120)
Each game of this series has opened with the same theme: first-inning fireworks. Milwaukee plated six in Game 1, both teams put up three in Game 2, and Chicago answered with four in Game 3. In fact, both teams have scored in the first inning in every game so far.
