Ever since the lineup change midseason, the Aces have been almost unbeatable. They ended the regular season on a 16-game win streak, beat the Storm 2-1, the Fever 3-2 and now lead 2-0 in a best-of-seven series against the Mercury.
Game 3 will be in Phoenix on Wednesday, Oct. 8. Tip-off is at 8 p.m. ET.
Phoenix is a four-point favorite and -180 on the moneyline, while Las Vegas is +150 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at 163.5 points.
Here are my favorite player prop bets for Game 3 between the Aces and Mercury.
Aces vs. Mercury Best Prop Bets
A’ja Wilson over 24.5 points (-125)
A’ja Wilson proves she’s the best player in the league every single night. The Mercury have struggled to contain her thus far, as she’s posted 21 and 28 points in Games 1 and 2, respectively.
The Aces travel to Phoenix for Games 3 and 4 with the potential to close out the series on the road. These big moments are where Wilson shines. She’s already won two WNBA Finals and an NCAA title in her career.
While the Storm and Fever did provide some resistance in the playoffs, there hasn’t been enough to stop believing in Wilson and the Aces. Wilson answers the bell each and every time, and until she doesn’t, it’s best to keep siding with her.
Alyssa Thomas to record a triple-double (+310)
While Wilson and the Aces have gotten most of the attention, the Mercury deserve some praise, too. Alyssa Thomas led this team against the Liberty and Lynx before reaching the Finals against Las Vegas. This is arguably the toughest path to a title any team could go through.
In each matchup, Thomas has lived up to her high expectations. She’s not the elite scorer than Wilson is, but she fills the box score every night. Thomas is a triple-double threat in every game she plays, averaging 17.2 points, 8.7 assists and 8.3 rebounds per game in these playoffs. This a typical stat line for Thomas over the past three regular seasons and postseasons.
Thomas has one triple-double in the 2025 playoffs, coming against New York in the first round. Here are all of her outputs this postseason:
- Sept. 14 vs. Liberty: 14p, 9r, 8a
- Sept. 17 vs. Liberty: 15p, 6r, 7a
- Sept. 19 vs. Liberty: 20p, 11r, 11a
- Sept. 21 vs. Lynx: 18p, 8r, 7a
- Sept. 23 vs. Lynx: 19p, 8r, 13a
- Sept. 26 vs. Lynx: 21p, 9r, 8a
- Sept. 28 vs. Lynx: 23p, 8r, 10a
- Oct. 3 vs. Aces: 15p, 10r, 9a
- Oct. 5 vs. Aces: 10p, 6r, 5a
In nine games, Thomas has one triple-double and was within three counting stats of a triple-double five more times.
It’s not a guarantee, of course, but there’s serious value at +310 considering how close she’s been in so many contests.