The 2025-26 NHL season got started last night with three games, and on Wednesday, Canada finally gets in on the action. The Toronto Maple Leafs begin their first campaign in nearly a decade without Mitch Marner on the roster. They face the Montreal Canadiens, headlined by the first full season for top prospect Ivan Demidov. One team is working to adjust to a new reality while the other works to take another step as a pleyoff threat.
Here’s a Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook to start the season.
Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens prediction, preview
The Maple Leafs saw a chance to knock the eventual champions out of last season’s postseason but ultimately fell short in typical Toronto fashion. As a result, the Mitch Marner saga came to a head and ended with the franchise shipping out its cornerstone to Las Vegas for Nicolas Roy. It was an unsatisfying conclusion for fans as the star departed for golden pastures, but the Leafs still have the necessary pieces to compete. Roy may not be a star in his own right, but he posts respectable numbers when healthy and fills a spot on the bottom couple of lines here. Of course, he joins a core that includes superstar Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and a now-extended John Tavares. Matthew Knies posted 58 points last year and is just 22 years old, and 24-year-old Matias Maccelli brings potential as a trade acquisition as well. There’s a nice blend of veterans and youth here, and while the blue line isn’t the league’s most exciting, they’re quite reliable. Chris Tanev, Brandon Carlo, Jake McCabe and Morgan Reilly form a formidable front four, and if Anthony Stolarz can repeat last season’s excellence, this entire project can work out… even in Marner’s absence.
The Canadiens have been building for a few years now and find themselves on the upswing. Just making the playoffs last season was an accomplishment in itself given expectations, but the franchise is now positioned to progress into a stronger force with a couple of key additions. Where the Leafs lost a star via trade, Montreal added one in Noah Dobson, one of the best young defensemen in the sport. He can move the puck and contribute on the top line, and with Lane Hutson also around, that’s an elite couple of talents to build from. Young star Nick Suzuki paced the team in points last season and can grow his game even more alongside Cole Caufield, and a second line with Oliver Kapanen and Ivan Demidov also poses a significant threat to opponents if the latter performs as promised. His play this year will prove key in taking this roster to the next level. Goaltender Sam Montembeault posted a 2.82 GAA last year with a .902 SV%, but an improved blue line can make life easier on him as well. Things are looking up in Montreal; there’s much to be excited about.
Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Maple Leafs as -166 favorites to win on the Moneyline. The Canadiens hold +140 odds to pull off the upset with a game total of 5.5.
Make no mistake, Toronto will still probably be a very good regular-season team this year. However, the loss of Marner hurts quite a bit and the adjustment period to life without him may take some time. I’m not totally sold on the Maple Leafs in this game because of that, as well as the quality Montreal deploys on the blue line. The Dobson addition is absolutely massive for that team and they’re positioned to take the next step with Martin St. Louis on the bench. Montembeault’s play will be the X-factor here, but taking the young upstart team to upset at plus odds feels like a quality pick to begin the new season. Expect a close contest as the Canadiens turn some heads, but with the value on the underdogs, I like them to win outright on the Moneyline on Wednesday.
