After a dominating performance from Logan Gilbert in Game 3, the Mariners have a chance to book their ticket to the ALCS with a victory on Wednesday afternoon against the Tigers.
Standing in their way? Former first-overall pick Casey Mize and what should be a raucous Detroit crowd.
Let’s preview Game 4, which gets going at 3:08 p.m. ET, with the help of some of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Mariners vs. Tigers Game 4 prediction, preview
The twist in this contest is the presence of Bryce Miller, who is only drawing a start in the ALDS because of the unavailability of Bryan Woo — Seattle’s ace in 2025 and a deserving All-Star. Ironically, if you had told most people that Miller was going claim those titles back in March, I don’t think anyone would have batted an eye. In 2024, Miller broke out in a huge way, registering a 2.94 ERA across 31 starts and 180.1 innings. However, things haven’t been quite as positive this season. Injury limited the 27-year-old to only 18 starts, and Miller was flat out awful when healthy, pitching to a 5.68 ERA and a 5.32 xERA. Miller also posted a first percentile opponent average exit velocity (92.4) during the regular season, and paired that distinction with a second percentile opponent hard hit rate (48.6%). That probably explains why Miller surrendered a whopping 2.59 opponent home runs per nine over August and September. Woof.
This is the opening that the Tigers have been waiting for. Detroit’s bats have struggled throughout the postseason, with the team slashing a putrid .191/.286/.260 across six games. However, the club was able to rally a little in the bottom of the ninth on Tuesday, scoring three runs off Caleb Ferguson. It wasn’t nearly enough to get the win, but it’ll be interesting to see if any of that success can carry over to Game 4. I’ll be specifically looking at the Tigers’ LHBs: Kerry Carpenter, Riley Greene and Colt Keith. As mentioned above, Miller really struggled over his final eight starts of the regular season, and opposite-hand matchups were the No. 1 reason. Opposing lefties managed a .709 slugging percentage off Miller dating back to the beginning of August.
As for Mize, this is a tough matchup against a Mariners lineup that led MLB in wRC+ during September (128). While Mize did have his issues in the season’s second-half — as evidenced by a 4.92 ERA after the All-Star break — it’s worth noting that the right-hander’s 3.82 FIP in that span was better than his 3.94 FIP prior to the Midsummer Classic. In fact, Mize was striking out more opponents and walking fewer the later he got into 2025. In September, Mize actually paired a 28.1% strikeout rate with a 3.5% walk rate. That translated out to a truly elite 8.00 K/BB ratio. The 28-year-old wasn’t given a very long leash in Game 2 of the Wild Card round, so I doubt he’s in this contest for too long, but Mize has been pitching about as well as he ever has for the past six weeks.
Mariners vs. Tigers Game 4 pick, best bet
Best Bet: Tigers ML (-115)
Detroit hasn’t won a game at Commerica in over a month, but I’ll take the home side in what is essentially a pick ’em.
Strong Lean: Riley Greene 2+ Total Bases (+122)
Greene has been underwhelming in the postseason, but managed a 141 wRC+ against RHPs throughout 2025.
