Early in the first quarter of the NBA preseason game between the Guangzhou Loong Lions and the San Antonio Spurs, eight-year NBA veteran Frank Kaminsky drove down the baseline for a routine reverse layup. No sooner than the ball left his hand, though, it was gobbled up by a giant paw, pinned against the backboard, and the blocker was leading a fast break the other way. It was an image that NBA fans hadn’t seen for nearly eight months: Victor Wembanyama back doing what Victor Wembanyama does best.
The French phenom played 16 minutes in San Antonio’s 119-88 victory over the Chinese side, scoring nine points on perfect shooting while grabbing 10 rebounds, dishing out seven assists, and swatting three shots. He’s expected to suit up again tonight, when the Spurs travel to face the Miami Heat at 7:30 p.m. ET tonight. The Heat have lost both of their preseason games in narrow decisions against the Orlando Magic and Milwaukee Bucks.
Miami is a two-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-135 on the Moneyline), with the point total set for 219. Meanwhile, San Antonio is +114 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this clash and offer a prediction.
San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat preview, prediction
It’s hard to glean too much from the Spurs’ preseason opener, given that it came against a Chinese Basketball Association team that finished just 12-34 last season, but Wembanyama’s improved playmaking and strength were on full display. San Antonio has to be encouraged by the chemistry that Wemby displayed with new signing Luke Kornet, assisting his fellow big thrice. Rookie Carter Bryant also looked good, scoring 15 points, but letting Kaminsky and former All-NBA player Victor Oladipo drop 20 or more points each probably wasn’t part of the plan, nor was getting outscored in the third quarter.
Because the Heat have played two preseason games, their starting five is more ramped up than the Spurs’. After playing just 12, 13, and 14 minutes in the opener against Orlando, Miami’s trio of Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo, and Norman Powell played 16 minutes each in the loss to Milwaukee, with Powell standing out with an 18-point performance. Last season’s first round pick, Kel’el Ware, had an 18-point, 13-rebound double-double, but some poor shooting and sloppy decision-making condemned Miami to a loss against a Pete Nance-led Bucks team that rested Giannis Antetokounmpo. Newly-extended Nikola Jović had an all-around performance — nine points, eight rebounds, and seven assists in 23 minutes — which was extremely promising.
Spurs at Heat pick, best bet
Given his plus-20 plus-minus against Guangzhou, this game will come down to how many minutes Wembanyama plays. He’s the single most impactful defensive player in the league, and his mere presence deters opponents from attempting high-quality shots. Monday also showed some of his progress on the offensive end, particularly regarding his ability to use his gravity to get his teammates involved. Given that he played 16 minutes on Monday, I’d expect him to play 20 or so tonight, along with Julian Champagnie, Keldon Johnson, and Harrison Barnes. Devin Vassell, who sat out on Monday, should play tonight, but I’d expect him to be limited to less playing time than the rest of the starters. It’s worth noting, though, that San Antonio was 7.3 points per 100 possessions worse last season with Vassell on the floor than off.
The Heat are the far healthier team. Adebayo, Wiggins, and Powell could play closer to 20 minutes, and their deep bench guys should shoot better than they did against Milwaukee, when Trevor Keels and Jahmir Young combined to shoot just one-for-14 from the field. With starting point guard Tyler Herro and backup Davion Mitchell out because of injuries, Miami has thrust the playmaking burden upon Jović and second-year pro Keshad Johnson, and both guys have shown flashes. Dru Smith, who has already returned from the torn Achilles that he suffered last December, has looked good in limited minutes and could provide a bench scoring option, but his minutes are still heavily limited.
This game will be decided on the boards, with a specific focus on the young big man battle between Wembanyama and Ware. In the defeat against the Magic, Miami was dominated on the glass, 58-40, but proceeded to rack up a 60-43 edge against the Bucks. Expectedly, the Spurs throttled the Loong Lions on the boards, 52-30, and out-assisted them 31-19 despite missing point guards De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper and using Wembanyama as a jumbo playmaker. On paper, the Heat should win this one because they have a deeper squad and have had a longer ramp-up, but I can’t bet against a seven-foot-five version of Hakeem Olajuwon with an above-average jumper and elite court vision, especially now that he has another big to help gobble up rebounds.
