Baseball is all about peaking at the right time: in the postseason. That’s certainly been the case for the 2024 World Series champions, the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have won each of their first four playoff games and have the opportunity to clinch a ticket to the National League Championship Series tonight if they can beat the Philadelphia Phillies in tonight’s 9:08 p.m. ET clash at Dodger Stadium.
Los Angeles will have just the man on the mound to do the job, ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who stymied the Cincinnati Reds for 6.2 innings in the Wild Card Series. Philadelphia will have Aaron Nola take the mound as an opener before likely turning to Ranger Suárez for a few innings.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers prediction, preview
So far this series, both teams’ starting pitching has been good and their bullpens have had questions. In Game 1, the Phillies jumped out to a 3-0 lead behind a J.T. Realmuto triple against Shohei Ohtani but the Dodgers pulled it back with two runs in the sixth and three more in the seventh off of relievers David Robertson and Matt Strahm to win, 5-3. Game 2 saw a similar recipe: after Blake Snell and Jesús Luzardo dueled for six innings, Los Angeles scored four in the top of the seventh against Orion Kerkering. Blake Treinen almost blew it for the Dodgers in the top of the ninth before Roki Sasaki came in for a two-pitch, one-out save. It’s been a nail-biting series, but it’s reached an elimination scenario regardless.
In Los Angeles’ ideal world, eight of the nine innings will be thrown by a pitcher born in Japan and the other will be thrown by Clayton Kershaw. Yamamoto threw a career-high 113 pitches last Wednesday against the Cincinnati Reds and couldn’t quite complete the seventh inning, but since he’s on his traditional six days’ rest and is set up to start Game 2 of the NLCS on five days’ rest, he should be able to offer at least 100 pitches tonight. Five of the 10 times he reached 100 pitches during the regular season, he finished the seventh inning, and given the hot form he’s been in — three total earned runs across his last six starts — Philadelphia will struggle to hit him.
I’d expect Kershaw to come in whenever Yamamoto exits — there’d be no reason to carry him on the roster otherwise — and hand it over to Sasaki at the start of the ninth. The youngster from Rikuzentakata, some 500 miles from Yamamoto’s hometown of Bizen, was an afterthought a few weeks ago but has emerged as the Dodgers’ primary closer behind a flurry of 100-MPH fastballs and devastating splitters.
The Phillies will piggyback two starters in an effort to avoid some of the bullpen woes that plagued them in Games 1 and 2. I’d expect Rob Thomson to have a fairly quick leash on Nola, a former ace who’s struggled through an injury-riddled season to the tune of a 6.01 ERA. The right-hander did put together a quality start in his lone appearance against Los Angeles this season, spinning six innings of three-run ball in a 3-1 defeat on April 5, but that was a while ago. Philadelphia will have a better chance if Suárez is in the game; the Venezuelan has excelled at limiting hard contact, which should help against a powerful lineup that led the league in homers at home this season, and he also has a 1.43 career ERA in the playoffs.
In an ideal world for the Phillies, Nola and Suárez will combine for seven innings and Jhoan Duran can handle the ninth for the third straight game, with a reliever — perhaps Tim Mayza, Walker Buehler, or Taijuan Walker, none of whom have appeared yet — handling the eighth. If it’s one of Buehler or Walker and Philadelphia goes on to win, the other might appear out of the bullpen in Game 4 behind Cristopher Sánchez, who will be pitching on four days’ rest.
Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+108)
For Los Angeles to have arguably its best possible pitching arrangement available in a closeout game is any World Series contender’s dream, and Thomson’s decision to start Nola over Suárez has already drawn the consternation of many Phillies fans online. The Dodgers went 52-29 at home during the regular season.
Strong Lean: Yoshinobu Yamamoto to Record a Win (+122)
This might require Los Angeles to score a run earlier than the sixth inning, something that it hasn’t done yet this series, but the Dodgers finally gave Yamamoto run support in his final two regular season starts as well as in the Wild Card Round. Shohei Ohtani is just one-for-nine with six strikeouts so far this series, and his struggles won’t last long. I wouldn’t be surprised if he helps Los Angeles to an early lead that Yamamoto, Kershaw, and Sasaki are simply too good to blow.
