Here are all the NFL Week 6 player props that I’ll be backing, with some solid spots setting up for a handful of running backs.
JK Dobbins OVER 69.5 Rushing Yards (-110) 1.5-units (Sunday 9:30am ET)
Denver and New York travel to London to kickoff the NFL Week 6 Sunday slate at 9:30am ET. This one has all the makings of what I like to see when targeting running back props — the Broncos are roughly touchdown favorites against a poor run defense and they like to run the rock. Through five games, Dobbins is averaging more than 80 rushing yards per game on just over 15 carries per. He’s rushed for at least 76 yards in four consecutive games, all in more difficult matchups than this one, aside from a similar matchup against the Bengals — in which Dobbins had over 100 yards.
Meanwhile, the Jets rank 25th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed at over 130 per game. That number has been getting worse as the season goes on, with New York surrendering 156.3 rushing yards per game over its last three. After limiting the Steelers in Week 1, the Jets have given up a 21-132-2 line to James Cook, 25-66-0 to Bucky Irving, 20-99-1 to De’Von Achane and 16-135-1 to Javonte Williams.
Look for another big game from JK Dobbins in London on Sunday morning.
Hassan Haskins OVER 36.5 Rushing Yards (-115) 1-unit (Sunday 1pm ET)
With both James Conner and Trey Benson out for the Cardinals, last week we went to Michael Carter’s rushing prop against the Titans. Carter’s rushing yards prop was set probably 20-30 yards lower than Conner or Benson would’ve been against the poor Tennessee run defense, and I think we see a very similar handicap here with Haskins.
Omarion Hampton is now out multiple weeks, and Najee Harris is already on the shelf for the season. Haskins has never really gotten a chance to be featured since he was a fourth-round pick out of Michigan a few years ago, so I’m expecting his largest NFL role yet. He’ll share time with Kimani Videl, but Videl figures to be the passing down back. Hampton or Harris would have a much higher rushing prop here, with Haskins set modestly in the 30’s.
The Dolphins run defense has been atrocious, ranking 30th in the NFL, giving up 158 yards per game. Six different running backs have gone over this number in five games against Miami this season, including Rico Dowdle going for over 200 yards last week. The Chargers have to get some production on the ground in this game, so given the matchup I’ll play this low number on Haskins.
Chase Brown OVER 3.5 Receptions (-114) 1-unit (Sunday 4:25pm ET)
The Bengals are in a pretty difficult spot this weekend, catching north of two touchdowns in Green Bay to face the Packers off a bye. However, that spot sets up perfectly for Brown to see some short targets in the passing game. Brown has caught 18-of-22 targets through five games this season, and is averaging 4.7 receptions per game in the three full games with Joe Burrow out of the lineup. That includes seven receptions on eight targets last week when playing from behind against the Lions.
Enter Joe Flacco at quarterback, who has been a check down king in his four starts with Cleveland. Flacco is averaging 8.5 running back targets per game, and his backs have totaled reception numbers of nine, 11, five and five in those games. Aside from game script as massive road underdogs, the Packers have been a good team to target running back receptions against. In their four games, the Pack have allowed the second-most running back targets (7.75) and receptions (6.5) per game.
Good spot for Brown to see some targets anyway we look at it — quarterback play, game script and matchup.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt OVER 61.5 Rushing Yards (-111) 1.5-units (Monday 8:15pm ET)
Bill, as we’ve come to call him, had a breakout game for Washington last week, ripping off 111 yards on the ground with a pair of touchdowns on just 14 carries. That came against a middle of the pack Chargers’ run defense, and now Bill gets to face the absolute bottom of the barrel in the Bears.
Chicago ranks dead last against the run this season, giving up nearly 165 rushing yards per game. The Bears gave up 240 yards on the ground last time out, including a 21-138-1 line to Ashton Jeanty. Even the backup, Raheem Mostert, went over this number with 62 yards on four carries in that game. He was the fifth running back to go over this number in four games against the Bears, with others also coming close.
Assuming this is the rookie’s backfield at this point, Croskey-Merrit should feast in this matchup.
Saquon Barkley OVER 86.5 Rushing Yards (-113) 1-unit (Thursday 8:15pm ET)
It’s been a slow start to the season for Barkley by his standards, particularly coming off of his 2,000-yard Super Bowl season in 2024. Through five games, Saquon is averaging just 53.4 rushing yards per game. He’s topped Thursday night’s prop, set at 86.5 rushing yards, just once on the season — 88 yards on 22 carries against the Chiefs. In three games since, Barkley hasn’t rushed for more than 46 yards in a single outing.
Barkley’s off an interesting stat line, finishing with just six carries against Denver, in a game that Philadelphia was playing from ahead most of the way. Of course, the Broncos came back in the fourth quarter to win that game, setting up a nice bounce-back spot for the Eagles on Thursday Night Football against the Giants.
Barkley was dealing with some knee soreness, but is off the injury report, and a full go on TNF. All the pieces are in place for Barkley to shine in primetime with his breakout game of the season. After a head-scratching six carries on Sunday, look for the Eagles to feature Barkley in a soft matchup against his former team. The G-Men rank 29th in the NFL against the run, allowing 153 yards per game on the ground thus far.
Barkley sat out the Week 18 game against the Giants last season to rest, but when he faced them in his only trip to MetLife Stadium last season he carved them up. Saquon ripped off over 10 yards per carry against his former teammates, finishing with a 17-176-1 line. Look for this to be his breakout game in 2025.
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