Wednesday is the final day of the year with four Major League Baseball games on the calendar, as all four Division Series have a chance to wrap up or be extended, depending on the result. The Blue Jays, Brewers, Mariners and Dodgers are all in close-out situations, while the Yankees, Cubs, Tigers and Phillies are looking to extend the series another game. With so much on the line, you can raise the stakes even higher by adding in some juicy home run props on DraftKings Sportsbook. After taking a look at the matchups, game environments, odds and current form of the players available, my favorite home run props for tonight are for Riley Greene and Kike Hernandez.
Just like during the regular season, here’s a quick reminder before we step to the plate and point to the flagpole to call our home run props — all home run props are long shot bets by their very nature. Even the top home run hitters are more likely to not hit a home run in any single game, especially against playoff-level pitching. Home run props are never “safe” picks, but a few key indicators can point us in the right direction. Just remember that home run props are always volatile plays.
As a result, home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be heavily relied on since they’re uncertain. What makes home run props exciting is that the longer odds yield big returns when they do hit. I typically play home run props individually and in round robins at a small unit size, boosting the ceiling even higher if multiple home run props go green on a given night.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props on Wednesday’s playoff slate.
Top Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Riley Greene 1+ Home Run (+339)
Greene is 2-for-12 in this series and 6-for-23 in the postseason. He hasn’t homered since the regular season, but he’s in a good matchup on Wednesday against Bryce Miller of the Mariners, and he brings good value at this number on his home run props.
Greene had a career-high 36 homers this season with a .258 batting average, .343 wOBA and a career-best .235 ISO. He hit 32 of those homers against righties with a .373 wOBA in the split.
He’ll also be on the strong side of the splits against Miller in this matchup. It was a rough year for the 27-year-old righty, as he struggled to a 5.68 ERA and 5.17 FIP with 17 homers allowed in his 18 starts. Lefties, like Greene, hit 59% of those home runs even though they only had 44% of the plate appearances against him. They had a .365 wOBA against him overall and a .482 slugging percentage when facing him on the road.
Greene hasn’t been the hero the Tigers need him to be just yet, but this looks like a great matchup for him to go yard and help the Tigers push the series back to Seattle for Game 5. His home run props aren’t a lock since he hasn’t been crushing lately, but he still makes sense at this value.
Enrique Hernandez 1+ Home Run (+700)
Let’s close out the day with the longest shot of my home run props for this Wednesday. I highlighted Hernandez in my top MLB DFS picks for the day, and I also like his home run props as a long shot play.
Hernandez has a great history in the postseason, specifically against Aaron Nola, who starts Game 3 for the Phillies, with their backs against the wall on the West Coast.
Hernandez has gone 4-for-11 against Nola in his career, with three of those hits being home runs. He smashed one of those back in April of this year, when he ambushed a knuckle curve from the veteran righty:
Hernandez is also a proven playoff slugger with 15 homers and a .366 wOBA in his 90 career postseason games. He only played 20 games in the second half of the regular season due to injury, but he did hit two homers during that stretch, and has gone 5-for-16 (.313) with two doubles in the 2025 postseason for the Dodgers.
Nola gave up 18 homers in his 17 starts this season, posting a 5-10 record to go with a 6.01 ERA and 4.58 FIP. He did flash upside with a few strong outings towards the end of the season, but there’s a good chance the Dodgers tee off on him in Los Angeles in Game 3 and move onto the NLCS with a big win Wednesday night. If they do, Hernandez’s home run props are a sneaky value bet to consider.
