After being “blessed” with NFC West matchups the last few Thursdays, we’re now hopping on the jetstream and heading to New Jersey for an NFC East matchup between the division-leading Philadelphia Eagles and cellar dweller New York Giants.
The Eagles won their first four games of the season, but there were question marks, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Last week, the Eagles were knocked off the undefeated perch by the visiting Denver Broncos, 21-17. Philadelphia uncharacteristically could only muster 45 yards on the ground, but Jalen Hurts threw for a season-high 280 yards.
After having enough of Mr. Unlimited losses, the Giants turned to first-round pick Jaxson Dart in Week 4, and he helped post an impressive win over the visiting Los Angeles Chargers. Last week, Dart made his first road start and had his welcome-to-the-NFL moments, throwing two interceptions while the Giants lost to the formerly moribund New Orleans Saints.
Philadelphia will likely return to its ground-and-pound roots in this one, especially since the path of least resistance is on the feet. New York has allowed the fourth-highest EPA per carry with a whopping 5.3 yards per carry. The Eagles are only averaging 3.5 yards per carry, with Saquon Barkley only generating 267 yards on 83 carries. Still, some of the teams they’ve faced — Los Angeles, Tampa Bay, and Denver — have extremely solid run defenses. Against New York, his former team, Barkley could have his best game of the season.
The Eagles’ run defense hasn’t been as stout this season, allowing 4.7 yards per carry, and their EPA per carry is the 13th-lowest in the league. New York has the 20th-best EPA per carry in the two games that Dart started. The Giants are going to want to run the ball as much as possible to keep their rookie quarterback out of tough situations, likely sticking with that plan unless the game gets completely out of hand.
In that scenario, Philadelphia has posted the eighth-lowest EPA per dropback while allowing the second-lowest completion percentage at 58%. Their pressure rate is only 20th-best, and their seven sacks are tied for the third-fewest.
DraftKings Sportsbook has Philadelphia listed as a seven-point favorite over New York with the total at 40.5.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (PHI @ NYG)
Captain’s Picks
Saquon Barkley ($17,400 CP): Last season, Barkley finished with over 20 FPTS nine times, with six of those over 30 and a high of 49.2 FPTS. Through five games this season, Barkley has yet to exceed 18 FPTS. Outside of last week’s six carries against the Broncos, Barkley received at least 18 carries in the other four games. Barkley could have his breakout game of the season in this one, as the Giants have one of the worst run defenses in the league.
UTIL Plays
Dallas Goedert ($9,600): Goedert gushed all offseason about how Kevin Patullo was utilizing him more in the offense. Well, through four games, Goedert has 22 targets, the third-most on the team despite missing one game. He received seven targets in Week 1 and nine last week. He’s finished with at least 10 FPTS in all four games he’s played.
Jaxson Dart ($15,300): Dart threw two interceptions last week, and he’s had his rookie moments through two games. Still, he doesn’t look overwhelmed and has completed 65% of his attempts in both contests. The main allure of Dart, though, is the rushing prowess. He’s carried 10 and seven times for 54 and 55 yards, respectively, scoring once. As a result, he’s put up 19.8 and 18.6 FPTS in his two starts.
Theo Johnson ($8,700): Johnson is a freak of nature, running a 4.57 40-yard dash at 6’6″ and 264 pounds. He’s also in the 96th percentile for burst score and 78th percentile for agility score per PlayerProfiler. The tight end plays around 80% of the snaps and has 22 targets on the season. In Week 4, Johnson caught three of five targets for 17 yards and a touchdown. Last week, he had his best game of the season, hauling in six of seven targets for 33 yards and two touchdowns. He has nine red zone looks on the season — the second-most on the team.
Fades
A. J. Brown ($14,700): My prediction is that Barkley has a big game, which would extinguish the opportunities for the pass catchers. Brown has put up single-digit FPTS in four of the five weeks. In Week 3, though, he was vintage Brown, finishing with six receptions, 109 yards and a touchdown — good for 25.9 FPTS. And that outcome is always in play with Brown. I’m still sticking with my Barkley forecast, though.
THE OUTCOME
The Eagles should overwhelm the Giants, but New York is at home, and weird things always seem to happen in island games like Thursday Night Football.
Final Score: Eagles 20, Giants 16
