After dropping Game 1 in a tight-knit affair and Game 2 in a more lopsided contest, the Phoenix Mercury are officially in must-win territory for tonight’s 8 p.m. ET Game 3 of the WNBA Finals against the Las Vegas Aces. If they lose, they’ll fall into a 3-0 hole that no NBA team has ever come back from (and, obviously, no WNBA team has either).
Phoenix’s deficit hasn’t necessarily been any fault of Satou Sabally’s, given that she’s averaged 20.5 points and 6.5 rebounds per game so far this series on shooting splits similar to her regular season marks. She and Kahleah Copper have each scored 19 or more points in both games.
The Mercury are four-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set for 163.5. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bet centered around the German southpaw.
Best Satou Sabally Prop Bet on DraftKings Sportsbook
Satou Sabally 3+ Three-Pointers Made (+195)
Three-point shooting isn’t necessarily the bread and butter of Sabally’s game, as her off-ball movement is also a major part of her impact, but Phoenix’s most important player is Alyssa Thomas, who attracts defensive attention on her drives and opens up the Mercury’s shooters from deep. It’s not a huge surprise that Sabally had her second-highest three point attempt rate this season playing with Thomas, and though she was inefficient during the regular season, she has made a third of her attempts so far these playoffs. Sabally has drained three or more triples in four of her last seven games. Two of her three triples in Game 1 were assisted by Thomas.
Because the Aces are led by an elite interior force in four-time MVP and three-time Defensive Player of the Year A’ja Wilson, outside shooting is arguably the Mercury’s best path towards victory. So far these playoffs, Las Vegas has allowed the third-lowest shooting percentage from the restricted area and from the midrange, but it has conceded the third-highest three point percentage. Shooting was the key to Phoenix’s near-upset in Game 1: it went 14-for-36 (38.9%) from beyond the arc, while the Aces shot just nine-for-27 (33.3%). The Mercury once again attempted several more threes than Las Vegas in Game 2, but they went just five-for-28 (17.9%). Shooting variance should swing back in Sabally’s favor.
