Missouri State arrives with sharper air production, Middle Tennessee with speed and the ache of missed red-zone finishes. Both rank outside the top 90 in third-down conversion and live on tempo to disguise imbalance. The Bears throw for 261.8 yards per game, the Blue Raiders for 229.6, and each offense needs rhythm more than explosion. It’s the kind of mid-October matchup where player props beat spreads — volume, usage, and leverage outweigh reputation. Tonight, efficiency wins, and these overs tell the sharper story. Below are my top college football player props to consider at DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 7 matchup between the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders and the Missouri State Bears.
MTSU vs. Missouri State best prop bets
Shomari Lawrence 70+ rushing yards (-110)
Missouri State’s lead running back Shomari Lawrence has emerged as a focal point of the Bears’ offense, especially with uncertainty at quarterback. Lawrence has 286 rushing yards on the season and is coming off a 78-yard effort on 16 carries against Western Kentucky, a game where starting QB Jacob Clark was injured. If Clark is limited or out, Missouri State will likely lean on the ground game even more. Lawrence already showed he can live in the 70s in that Western Kentucky outing and even exceeded it in a game with just eight carries against UT Martin.
The matchup is favorable: Middle Tennessee’s run defense is yielding 5.0 yards per carry on average and has allowed 170.2 rushing yards per game, including multiple 100-yard rushers across their last three contests. The Blue Raiders’ defensive front often allows runners to reach the second level, which bodes well for Lawrence’s chances to break a chunk run. Missouri State’s O-line isn’t dominant, but Lawrence has shown he can create extra yardage when the first crease appears.
Missouri State sustains drives for 31:31 of possession per game, which stabilizes Lawrence’s volume base. Given Middle Tennessee’s struggles against the run, Lawrence should be in line for 15+ carries, which at even a modest average would push him past this number. Missouri State will want to take pressure off their QB situation by feeding Lawrence.
Jekail Middlebrook 70+ rushing yards (-115)
On the other side, Middle Tennessee may counter by leaning on their own running back, Jekail Middlebrook. Despite the Blue Raiders’ reputation as a pass-happy team, Middlebrook has quietly become a workhorse recently. He leads MTSU with 340 rushing yards this season and has hit his rushing Over in three straight games. In Middle Tennessee’s last outing (a 24-16 loss to Kennesaw State), Middlebrook was given 20 carries, which he turned into 109 yards and two touchdowns. That marked his third consecutive game exceeding roughly the mid-60s yardage range that this prop used to sit at, and his role continues to swell as conference play heats up.
Missouri State’s defense is more vulnerable through the air than on the ground, but it’s not a shutdown front. The Bears are allowing about 154.8 rushing yards per game to opponents, with 4.9 yards per carry and a 51% rushing success rate over the last month. With Middle Tennessee’s passing attack struggling for efficiency, it makes sense to establish the run. Middlebrook averages 5.8 yards per carry this year and owns a long run of 72 yards, so a small crease can flip the math fast. Missouri State must respect MTSU’s pass tendency, which can open interior lanes for Middlebrook on zone and duo.
Middle Tennessee’s offensive tempo (68.4 plays per game) and 43.9% run rate create steady ground volume, and a 70.6% red-zone conversion rate signals comfort pounding the rock near the stripe. If Middle Tennessee wants to keep Missouri State’s offense off the field and avoid turnovers, feeding Middlebrook is the cleanest path. Expect 18–20 carries again.
Jmariyae Robinson 30+ receiving yards (-130)
Missouri State’s passing offense has an edge in this matchup, and one beneficiary could be senior wideout Jmariyae Robinson. Robinson is the Bears’ No. 2 receiver behind Dash Luke, with 212 receiving yards and 1 TD on the season. While Dash Luke draws a lot of attention (310 yards, two TDs), Robinson has quietly averaged over 42 yards per game—well above this modest 30.5-yard prop. In fact, Robinson’s career shows him to be a big-play threat; he averaged 15.4 yards per catch last year and sits around 16+ YPC this season. It might only take 2–3 catches for him to hit 31+ yards.
The matchup is enticing: Middle Tennessee’s pass defense has been subpar. The Blue Raiders allow 239.0 passing yards per game and rank 104th nationally in defensive EPA per dropback, which is the softest unit Missouri State has faced since Week 2. Both teams are pass-happy, but MTSU’s secondary has been the weaker of the two. The Blue Raiders have allowed a higher completion rate and more yards per attempt to opposing QBs, and they allow about 216 passing yards per game. Missouri State’s passing offense ranks top-30 in yards per completion (13.1) and has scored on 76.9% of red-zone trips, creating multiple script paths for chunk plays.
If Missouri State’s quarterback play is solid (whether Jacob Clark returns or backup Deuce Bailey plays), Robinson should see opportunities on the outside, especially if coverage tilts toward Dash Luke. A single deep shot to Robinson could cash this Over—he had a 69-yard touchdown catch in 2024 and a long of 41 yards earlier this year. With Middle Tennessee likely keying the run after Lawrence’s success last week, play-action could free Robinson behind the defense.
