I’m not sure if anyone saw what happened this weekend in Toronto coming. It wasn’t just that the Blue Jays won twice on their home field to go up 2-0 in this ALDS, it’s that they absolutely bludgeoned the Yankees, scoring double-digit runs in both contests.
Now, the series will shift to the Bronx, where Toronto will be looking to punch its ticket to the ALCS for the first time since 2016. Standing in the team’s way is Carlos Rodon and a New York roster still brimming with talent.
Can the Yankees force a Game 4? Let’s first preview Game 3, which gets going at 8:08 p.m. ET, with the help of some of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees Game 3 prediction, preview
Carlos Rodon will get the ball with the Yankees’ season on the line. On the surface, that should give New York and any prospective bettors a lot of confidence. Across 33 starts and 195.1 innings during the regular season, Rodon posted a 3.09 ERA and 18 wins with a league-low .187 opponent batting average. Rodon also saw his opponent barrel rate, which had been up above 11.0% in both 2023 and 2024, fall back down to a manageable 7.5%. Still, there was a little bit of luck behind those impressive figures. Namely a .228 opponent BABIP that was the lowest mark among all qualified pitchers. Rodon’s other red flags? How about a 9.8% walk rate to opposing RHBs? Or the fact he surrendered 1.27 opponent home runs per nine at Yankee Stadium? There’s no doubt that Rodon was a deserving All-Star in 2025, yet let’s not pretend he’s Tarik Skubal.
Speaking of slightly past their prime former aces, Toronto will counter with Shane Bieber. The 2020 American League Cy Young Award winner has only started nine MLB games since the beginning of 2024, with seven of those coming since a deadline move to the Blue Jays. While Bieber’s 3.57 ERA over 40.1 innings doesn’t really turn any heads, opposing batters have been hitting the 30-year-old hard. In fact, Bieber’s xERA is a full run higher due primarily to an inability to keep the ball in the yard. Bieber’s surrendered 1.79 opponent home runs per nine — 2.95 per nine specifically to RHBs — and a massive 12.3% barrel rate. Bieber has held opposing LHBs to an extremely modest .192 wOBA, which should be helpful against a New York lineup stuffed with lefties; yet New York led MLB during the regular season in home runs (274) and ISO (.204). If there’s a roster equipped to expose Bieber’s flaw, it’s this one.
That means for the Jays to have a chance at the sweep, they’ll have to keep hitting. Toronto scored 23 runs in 16 innings this past weekend, and the club ranked third in batting average (.264) and wRC+ (111) against southpaws during the regular season. Like teammate and Game 2 starter Max Fried, Rodon also didn’t have a lot of success against the Blue Jays this year, allowing six runs (four earned) with eight walks and eight strikeouts over 10.0 innings. A big element of those woes? Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and his love of facing-off with Rodon. In 17 career at-bats, Vladdy has 10 hits and a 1.608 OPS. That’s about as one-sided as it gets.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees Game 3 pick, best bet
Best Bet: Total Total Bases Over 26.5 (-110)
The starting pitchers might be household names, but neither is currently at the peak of their powers. Meanwhile, these have been arguably two of the five best lineups in baseball all season long. Expect fireworks.
Strong Lean: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 2+ Total Bases (-105)
Maybe the Yankees start walking Guerrero, but aside from that, the All-Star is 6-for-9 (.667) in this series and he’s owned Rodon throughout the duo’s careers.
