The Tigers are coming home tied 1-1 in this ALDS series, but you’d have to think the team feels it missed a massive opportunity. Detroit stole Game 1 in extra innings in Seattle, then gave the ball to reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal in Game 2. However, thanks primarily to the heroics of Jorge Polanco, the Mariners were able to eke out a victory on Sunday night, evening things up.
Now, the Tigers will take the field at Commerica Park — a place the team has not won a contest since all the way back on September 6. Will Detroit be able to take advantage of its home field? Or will Seattle come east and take control of the series?
Let’s preview Game 3, which gets going at 4:08 p.m. ET, with the help of some of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Mariners vs. Tigers Game 3 prediction, preview
Let’s start this off by mentioning Logan Gilbert, someone who was on the precipice of stardom at the beginning of 2025, yet seemed to sneak back under the radar due to injury. Gilbert was limited to 25 starts and 131.0 innings in the regular season, so he’s not listed among the league leaders in any counting stats. Nor is he going to get any Cy Young votes. However, there’s still a case to be made that the right-hander is among the five best starters in the American League when he’s healthy. Gilbert pitched to a 3.03 xERA and a 2.95 xFIP, buoyed by a 32.3% strikeout rate that would be the highest mark in MLB had the 28-year-old racked up the innings to qualify. Also, while Gilbert did struggle to a 4.74 ERA away from pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park, it’s not like Commerica is known for its confines being a boost to hitters. I’d be willing to overlook that particular split on Tuesday afternoon.
It’s not just the stadium, though. The Tigers’ lineup would actually have to take advantage of Gilbert’s slight home run issue, and I’m frankly underwhelmed when assessing their ability to accomplish that feat. Detroit is slashing a paltry .186/.289/.256 in the postseason, while the team managed only a .139 ISO and an 87 wRC+ in the whole month of September. As has been the case since the All-Star break, the Tigers just can not hit at the moment.
That’s going to put a lot of pressure on Jack Flaherty to keep the Mariners’ bats at bay — a collection of hitters that led MLB in ISO (.213) and wRC+ (128) in that same month of September. Flaherty looked quite good in his first start of the playoffs last week, tossing 4.2 innings against the Guardians and allowing only a single earned run. At the same time, Seattle is much more potent offensively than Cleveland, and Flaherty did struggle to a 4.64 ERA during the regular season. The Mariners also employ more than a couple hitters with good career numbers off Flaherty. Most notably, Eugenio Suarez has three long balls and a .985 OPS in 25 at-bats, while Randy Arozarena is 3-for-8 off Flaherty with a double and a pair of homers. Not too shabby.
Mariners vs. Tigers Game 3 pick, best bet
Best Bet: Mariners ML (-137)
I simply have more faith in Gilbert and the Mariners’ bats than I have with any aspect of the Tigers.
Strong Lean: Logan Gilbert 7+ Strikeouts (-126)
Gilbert possessed a 32.3% strikeout rate in the regular season. The Tigers had the league’s third-highest strikeout rate from the All-Star break on (25.1%).
