Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
On Tuesday, we’ve got two scoops of American League postseason goodness, as there’s a Game 3 taking place in both Detroit and the Bronx. In search of a couple home run props? Here are my favorites on the DraftKings Sportsbook: Spencer Torkelson and Giancarlo Stanton.
Top Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Spencer Torkelson 1+ Home Run (+532)
Spencer Torkelson had a huge double in the eighth inning of Game 2, but I’m expecting a little more from the former first-overall pick in Game 3. Here’s what we know. While Torkelson does strikeout more than you’d like, there’s no question about his raw power. In fact, along with 31 home runs and a .217 ISO during the regular season, Torkelson posted a .426 expected wOBA on batted ball events. When he actually makes contact, he’s incredibly dangerous. Then there’s Logan Gilbert. Seattle’s RHP has some electric stuff, yet like most Mariners’ pitchers, Gilbert had his issues taking the mound away from T-Mobile Park this season. Gilbert possessed a 4.74 ERA on the road and surrendered 1.72 opponent home runs per nine. Against right-handed opponents away from Seattle, that figure jumped all the way up to 2.30 home runs per nine. That’s a weakness that Torkelson certainly has the ability to exploit.
Giancarlo Stanton 1+ Home Run (+243)
There’s a couple things you have to consider about Shane Bieber, who will be toeing the rubber for the Blue Jays in Game 3 at Yankee Stadium. First and foremost, Bieber has only made seven MLB starts since his recovery and rehab from Tommy John surgery, and while his fastball velocity is currently better than it was in 2022 and 2023, it’s not exactly where it was when the RHP took home the AL Cy Young Award in 2020. As such, Bieber’s had some issues with barrelled balls in his time in Toronto — as evidenced by a 12.3% opponent barrel rate. Bieber’s also had some issues with right-handed opponents in this 40.1 inning span, conceding 2.95 home runs per nine and a .396 wOBA. Obviously, that makes Aaron Judge (+191) viable to go deep on Tuesday, though the reigning MVP’s odds aren’t the most alluring. Instead, I’ll go slightly longer with Stanton, as the man registered a 22.1% barrel rate during the regular season. Stanton’s playoff success is a factor, as well. In 193 career postseason plate appearances, Stanton owns a jaw-dropping .363 ISO.
