Entering the Division Series, it seemed likely that there would be three competitive series and one lopsided one. Through two games in each series, that hasn’t been the case: the Toronto Blue Jays are on the verge of ousting the New York Yankees, the Milwaukee Brewers are close to sending the Chicago Cubs home, and the Los Angeles Dodgers need just one win at home to close out the Philadelphia Phillies. Only the series between the Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers — the series that looked to be the least competitive at the outset — is tied 1-1.
The series shifts back to Detroit now, with the home side set to send Jack Flaherty to the mound. The Mariners, meanwhile, will counter with Logan Gilbert.
Seattle is a -137 favorite on the Moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the over-under set for 7.5 runs. The Tigers are +113 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll take you through my three favorite player props from tonight’s clash.
Mariners at Tigers Prop Bets for Game 3
Logan Gilbert U1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+100)
Gilbert is consistently pretty good: he allowed more than four earned runs in a start just once all season, and he had three separate starts in which he pitched exactly six innings and gave up exactly one earned run, all of which came within his last seven starts. Across that stretch, he pitched to a 2.52 ERA as the Mariners went 4-3. In that stretch, he allowed exactly one run four times, and three times all of that damage came via the solo shot. He’s also walked exactly one batter in six of his last seven starts. Overall, his control is exceptional, as he ranks in the 94th percentile in strikeout rate and the 86th percentile in walk rate.
The Tigers finished the regular season with just a .672 OPS in September, and it’s not like they’ve been winning through elite hitting. In five postseason games, they’ve scored just 14 total runs and posted a .545 OPS, the worst of any remaining team. Only once has the opposing team’s starter allowed more than one earned run: in Game 1 of this series, Seattle’s George Kirby gave up two earned runs in five innings, and Detroit ended up prevailing in extra innings. It’s not like the Tigers are exceptionally well-suited to take advantage of Gilbert’s proclivity to hard hits, given that they had the fourth-lowest average exit velocity of the eight teams still standing.
Jack Flaherty Race to 3 Strikeouts (-110)
Flaherty is far less consistent than Gilbert, giving up five or more earned runs in six different starts and leading the league in losses. Like Gilbert, he’s prone to giving up hard hits, but unlike Detroit, Seattle is chock-full of power hitters such as Cal Raleigh (60 home runs), Eugenio Suárez (49), Julio Rodríguez (32), Randy Arozarena (27), and Jorge Polanco (26). He does exactly one thing at a top-quintile level: strike batters out. His 27.6% strikeout rate sits in the 82nd percentile league-wide, and he recorded six or more strikeouts in 19 of his 31 starts.
Plus, since he’s the home pitcher, he’ll get the chance to pitch first in every inning, and it’s quite rare that the home pitcher is not heavily favored to be the first to three strikeouts. The top of the Mariners’ order has plenty of three-outcomes guys: Arozarena ranks in the 12th percentile in strikeout rate and Raleigh in the 14th. Those guys will hit one-two today, and Suárez and his fifth-percentile strikeout rate will hit sixth. I understand why Gilbert has -125 odds to be the first to three strikeouts as the visiting pitcher — the Tigers have struck out 59 times in five playoff games — but Seattle’s 18 K’s in two playoff games isn’t insignificant either. Flaherty faced Gilbert and the Mariners at home on July 13 and was the first to three strikeouts after fanning Ben Williamson to end the top of the second.
Eugenio Suárez 1+ Home Runs (+482)
Both of Seattle’s midseason acquisitions — Suárez and his former Arizona Diamondbacks teammate Josh Naylor — have struggled to start the postseason, as neither has gotten a hit in the first two games of the series. As a result, Suárez’s odds to hit a home run have climbed higher than they probably should for a man who finished fifth in homers league-wide during the regular season. Now, he has the fourth-highest odds on his own team to go deep, and that seems pretty unfair. In baseball, you can break out of a zero-for-21 skid as quickly as you can enter it.
Flaherty gave up 23 homers during the regular season, including solo shots to Rodríguez and Arozarena during his July start against the Mariners, and his pitch mix should benefit Suárez. Against right-handed batters, Flaherty typically throws four-seam fastballs, curveballs, and sliders in a 2:1:1 proportion. Suárez has hit 11 homers against four-seamers from right-handed pitchers and 13 against righty sliders. After struggling against breaking balls for most of his career, the Venezuelan slugger has been one of the league’s best hitters against sliders in 2025.
