Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will close down the Week 5 NFL slate with a Monday Night Football matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
After stumbling out of the gates and dropping their first two games, Kansas City has produced back-to-back victories over the Giants and Ravens. They are still looking to solidify their place as a legitimate Super Bowl threat again this year, and the Jaguars will be their next test. Jacksonville enters with a 3-1 record, with their lone loss coming to the Bengals, and has some momentum in their favor.
Looking at the odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, the Chiefs enter as 3.5-point favorites and hold -198 odds on the moneyline. The Jaguars hold +164 odds of getting the outright victory, with the game total set at 45.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action outside of backing a side or total. This article will look at my top Patrick Mahomes prop bets ahead of tonight’s Week 5 Monday Night Football matchup.
Best Patrick Mahomes Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Patrick Mahomes to Record 25+ Rushing Yards (+107)
The Chiefs’ rushing attack has been a major problem already this season. Through the opening four games, they rank 21st in rushing yards tallied and 18th in net yards per rush attempt. They have rushed for 442 total yards on the ground, or 110.5 rushing yards per game.
Headlining the list of production in the running game is none other than Patrick Mahomes himself. The two-time MVP has rushed for 130 yards and two scores on the ground across his 22 rush attempts. Isiah Pacheco has added 127 yards on 32 carries, Kareem Hunt has taken 36 carries for 115 yards, and Xavier Worthy and Brashard Smith have also played a role in the rushing attack. Any way you slice it, this level of run-game production does not quite cut it and is something Kansas City is going to deal with all year. Even while they went 15-2 and made it to the Super Bowl last year, the Chiefs ranked 22nd in rushing yards and 29th in net yards per rush attempt. These same problems are proving bothersome to the team again this season.
Mahomes will not be confused with Lamar Jackson, but he is perfectly capable of utilizing his legs. Excluding his rookie year, in which he played just one game, Mahomes is posting a career-high 5.5 rushing attempts per game. He is averaging 32.5 rushing yards per contest and has produced rushing totals of 57, 66, 2, and 5 on the season. This is a bit more all-or-nothing than is ideal, but Jacksonville has been susceptible to quarterback rushes.
Despite not facing a true dual-threat quarterback this year, with matchups against Brock Purdy, C.J. Stroud, Joe Burrow/Jake Browning, and Bryce Young, they have allowed 12 quarterback rush attempts and 76 total rushing yards to the position. Bryce Young headlines this with 40 rushing yards against the Jaguars. Count on Mahomes to continue leaning on his legs more and be willing to take off whenever there is not a wide receiver open. He has comfortably cleared 25+ rushing yards twice already this season, and I am backing tonight to be the third time and taking advantage of the +107 odds.
Patrick Mahomes to Record 3+ Passing Touchdowns (+241)
Another area where the lack of consistent running game production is evident is in the red zone. The Chiefs have attempted 13 passing attempts in the red zone compared to 10 rushing attempts and produced seven scores through the air and three rushing scores on the season. Kansas City has pushed the limits of the theory that if you put any group of pass catchers around Patrick Mahomes, he will find a way to make the offense successful. While there have been some ugly stretches caused by this theory, it is tough to argue with the overall success.
Concerns were growing after the 0-2 start, but Mahomes responded by looking like the best version of himself last week. He completed 25 of his 37 pass attempts against Baltimore for 270 passing yards and four passing touchdowns. The boost provided by the return of Xavier Worthy was notable, and they will look to build off this.
The Jaguars are averaging 24.0 points per game on the season, and the Chiefs will need to put up some points to get their desired results. Expect Kansas City to continue putting the responsibility of the offense on Mahomes’ shoulders, especially in this crucial area of the field. Jacksonville ranks 20th in passing touchdowns conceded this year and has allowed at least one score through the air in every game this season. Mahomes tallied three or more passing touchdowns in four games last year and 43 times in his career. His standard touchdown prop line is set at 1.5 with the over favored by -157 odds. Count on Mahomes to continue looking like one of the best quarterbacks in football and help get this Chiefs team back to their Super Bowl level standard. Expect tonight to be another step in the right direction and for the passing game to lead the way with at least three scores tallied.
