It won’t be met with as much fanfare or count as much as the October 22 game against the San Antonio Spurs, but the Dallas Mavericks’ Cooper Flagg is set to officially make his NBA debut in tonight’s preseason clash against the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder. The ultra-talented 18-year-old demonstrated flashes of his generational potential in the second Summer League game against San Antonio, dropping 31 points.
Both teams will be without several key players, as none of the Thunder’s core trio — Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren — is expected to play. In addition to Kyrie Irving, who will miss much of the regular season with a torn ACL, the Mavericks will also be without Daniel Gafford, who sprained his ankle last week in training camp.
Dallas is a four-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-192 on the Moneyline), with the point total set for 224.5. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is +160 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this clash and offer a prediction.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks preview, prediction
Praise has flowed in left and right for Flagg throughout training camp, looking polished on both ends of the floor, demonstrating chemistry in ultra-big lineups with Anthony Davis and Dereck Lively II and showcasing a pro-ready work ethic. He’ll be the main event tonight and should be pretty effective if all the tools he displayed in Summer League are legitimate. Last season’s No. 1 overall pick, Zaccharie Risacher, dropped 18 points in his preseason debut, while 2023 No. 1 overall pick Victor Wembanyama had 20 points. In their respective debuts, each first overall pick played roughly 20 minutes, so I’d expect a similar workload for Flagg tonight.
It’s far less clear how the rotations will look for some of the league’s more established stars. Anthony Davis is expected to suit up while wearing goggles to protect his injured eye. The Brow didn’t play in the Los Angeles Lakers’ preseason opener in 2024, but he did record 17 points in 18 minutes in the Lakers’ second preseason game. It was the first time he’d missed the preseason opener since 2020. Expecting him to play about 15 minutes tonight is fair, and Lively should play similar rotations as Flagg. Klay Thompson might also play around 15 minutes.
The Thunder have experienced far less turnover after bringing back nearly every single player that touched the court during their championship run last summer, but with Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, and Holmgren not expected to play, it’s up to the cadre of young players to hold down the fort. Last season’s first-round pick, Nikola Topić, played 31 minutes in last night’s preseason opener against the Charlotte Hornets, and regular season rotation piece Aaron Wiggins led the way with 23 points in 25 minutes. Of all the players who sat out the preseason opener, Dallas native Cason Wallace seems most likely to return.
Thunder at Mavericks pick, best bet
Unless one of Oklahoma City’s starters surprisingly suits up, the Mavericks should have the two best players on the court in Davis and Flagg, even if neither will likely touch the court in the fourth quarter. Although NBA fans haven’t seen it besides practice court clips, the trio of Davis, Flagg, and Lively should provide plenty of playmaking and defense and should out-score the Thunder. In 54 regular season minutes, Lively and Davis trounced opponents by 7.5 points per 100 possessions and posted a rebounding percentage 9.5 percentage points higher. Oklahoma City’s mediocre rebounding was basically its only weakness last season, and I wouldn’t expect it to dominate on the glass tonight without Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein.
If the Thunder win tonight, it’ll be through depth. Sam Presti’s scouting team has done an incredible job identifying and developing talent deep in the draft, finding contributors even in the second round. Wiggins was just the 55th overall pick, Jaylin Williams the 34th overall pick, Luguentz Dort an undrafted free agent, and Isaiah Joe was a Philadelphia 76ers 49th overall pick whose production improved once he arrived in Oklahoma City. The Thunder’s depth took a hit when first round pick Thomas Sorber suffered a torn ACL in an offseason workout, but they seemed unaffected by it last night in the preseason opener, as Chris Youngblood, Jazian Gortman, and Malevy Leons combined for 46 points. None of those players is particularly well-known, but their success wasn’t exactly surprising.
In a testament to Oklahoma City’s player development pipeline, it did make it to the semifinals of the NBA Summer League before losing to the eventual champion Hornets, and Youngblood, Brooks Barnhizer, Leons, and Gortman all averaged at least nine points per game. The Thunder shot quite well in the preseason opener, draining 53.2% of their field goal attempts and 40.8% of their triples, but they also won by 21, so they can regress somewhat tonight and still have a chance. The issue is that no duo on that Charlotte roster is as terrifying as the combination of Flagg and Davis, and Dallas has just enough available depth that I think it’ll cover the spread. I’m a believer in Mavericks rookie guard Ryan Nembhard, who closely resembled his older brother Andrew in Summer League play.
