The Jacksonville Jaguars will host the Kansas City Chiefs to put a bow on the Week 5 NFL slate. The Jaguars are off to a 3-1 start to the season, while the Chiefs sit at 2-2 after their first four games played.
Jacksonville has produced victories over the Panthers, Texans and 49ers, with its only loss coming to the Bengals. Kansas City had a difficult time out of the gates this year, losing to the Chargers and Eagles in the opening two weeks, but it is coming off back-to-back wins over the Giants and Ravens. The Chiefs’ last 37-20 win over the Ravens is as convincing as they have looked all season.
Looking at the odds for tonight’s matchup, the Chiefs enter as 3.5-point favorites and hold -198 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Jaguars hold +164 odds of getting the outright victory with the game total set at 45.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action beyond just backing a side. This article will look at my three favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 5 Monday Night Football matchup.
Chiefs at Jaguars Best Prop Bets
Travis Etienne Jr. Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
The prop line set for Travis Etienne Jr. is puzzling to me. Through the opening four games, he has rushed the ball 65 times for 394 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground. He has produced rushing totals of 143, 56, 71 and 124 while seeing at least 14 rush attempts in each game. Etienne is posting 6.1 yards per carry, and Jacksonville ranks fourth in the league in rushing overall.
Kansas City has struggled to stop the run this season. It ranks 22nd in rushing yards per game, 27th in net yards per rush attempt and 28th in EPA per rush attempt. Its 4.9 yards allowed per carry is also the fifth-worst rate in the league.
The Jaguars will continue to lean on Etienne as essentially the bell cow running back. He has recorded over 65.5 rushing yards in three of the four games this year and has averaged 66.2 yards per game over a season before. Bhayshul Tuten remains in the mix and could see his role grow as the season progresses, but he will be most effective in a change-of-pace role and has just 24 touches so far this season. Count on Etienne Jr. to see plenty of action on the ground and make an impact on this matchup. He has looked sharp to start the year and has had success against better rushing defenses already this season. This number simply feels far too low based on the level he has produced and the level of opportunity he is receiving. Look for him to record over 65.5 yards for the fourth time this season tonight and continue capitalizing on his rushing props until the market fully adjusts.
Xavier Worthy Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Wide receiver production has been a massive problem for the Chiefs this season. Xavier Worthy suffered a shoulder injury in the opening drive of the first game and has been sidelined until last week. Kansas City made quick work of getting him back involved in the offense. In his return last week, he was targeted eight times and pulled in five passes for 83 yards while adding 38 rushing yards. Worthy is the most dynamic playmaker on the Chiefs’ roster, and they will be looking to lean on him heavily.
This also occurred while Worthy logged just 58.9% of the team’s offensive snaps last week. Expect him to see these levels of opportunity scaled up with another week to get healthy. It is, however, worth noting that Worthy landed back on the injury report with a questionable tag due to an ankle injury. This is worth monitoring, but it seems to be more precautionary, and there is a major need for him in the offense. The Jaguars are an opportunistic defense that has forced nine interceptions, the most in the NFL, but have also allowed the ninth-most receiving yards.
Jacksonville is allowing 233.5 passing yards per game to this point and has struggled against opponents’ top receiving options. It gave up 104 yards to Nico Collins, 165 yards to Ja’Marr Chase and 74 yards to Zay Flowers already this year. Worthy is not quite the caliber of a route runner or wide receiver as these three, but his explosiveness is clear, and he will see plenty of opportunities to make plays. Count on the Chiefs leaning on Worthy’s skillset throughout and record more than 58.5 receiving yards for the second straight game as he continues to see his role within the offense expand. Give some consideration to the alternate lines here as well.
Patrick Mahomes to Record 3+ Passing Touchdowns (+247)
The Kansas City Chiefs have pushed the limits of the theory that if you put any group of pass catchers around Patrick Mahomes, the offense will still be successful. Concerns were beginning to grow after the 0-2 start, but Mahomes responded by looking like the future Hall-of-Fame quarterback he has proven to be, completing 25 of his 37 pass attempts for 270 yards and four touchdowns last week against the Ravens.
Mahomes will need to continue to lead the offense with the Chiefs getting little-to-no production in the running game. They rank 21st in rushing production overall, with Mahomes being the team’s leading rusher at 32.5 rushing yards per game and 130 total rushing yards. Isiah Pacheco has 127 total rushing yards through the first four games, while Kareem Hunt has added 115 rushing yards. Kansas City has 13 pass attempts compared to 10 rushing attempts in the red zone, along with seven passing scores compared to three rushing touchdowns tallied.
Expect the Chiefs to continue putting the responsibility on Mahomes’ shoulders in this crucial area of the field. Jacksonville ranks 20th in passing touchdowns allowed and has given up at least one score through the air in every game this season. Mahomes had three or more passing touchdowns in four games last year and in 43 games of his career. His standard passing touchdown prop line is set at 1.5, with the over favored at -146 odds. Count on Mahomes continuing to look like one of the best quarterbacks in football and for him to need to put the ball in the air throughout. It was encouraging to see what the Chiefs looked like last week overall, and expect them to build off this. Count on the struggles to run the football to continue and for Mahomes to need to push the ball into the end zone three times again tonight.
