The Philadelphia Phillies are entering must-win territory: after dropping Game 1 to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Division Series, they basically have to win tonight, given that Los Angeles went 52-29 at home during the regular season. For the Phillies, who were three games better than the Dodgers during the regular season, everything hinges on this.
For tonight’s Game 2, which begins at 6:08 p.m. ET, Philadelphia will send a pretty solid pitcher to the mound in Jesús Luzardo, a 28-year-old Peruvian who enjoyed plenty of success in his first season with the franchise. Los Angeles will have an even better southpaw toe the rubber in two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell, who blanked the Cincinnati Reds across seven innings in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series.
The Dodgers are -132 favorites on the Moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the over-under set for 7.5 runs. The Phillies are +108 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll take you through my three favorite player props from tonight’s clash.
Dodgers at Phillies Prop Bets for Game 2
Blake Snell 8+ Strikeouts (-111)
Snell was un-hittable against the Reds, racking up nine strikeouts across his seven innings, including three separate two-strikeout frames. The four-hit, two-run outing was merely a continuation of a late-season trend: he amassed 28 strikeouts across his final three regular season starts — including a 12-strikeout outing against Philadelphia at Dodger Stadium — and gave up just one run in that span.
While he’s heavily reliant on his 96th-percentile chase rate to fan batters, that should be no problem tonight against a team that bit on out-of-zone pitches at the third-highest clip during the regular season. The Phillies had the most strikeouts against lefties, though they also recorded the most at-bats in that split. Philadelphia’s two most dangerous power hitters, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, both bat from the left side, and Snell throws his slider almost exclusively against southpaws. That pitch had an eye-popping 54.0% whiff rate and a 36.8% strikeout rate this season.
The calendar’s turn to October didn’t seem to help Philadelphia in Game 1: Shohei Ohtani fanned nine batters in six innings, and Tyler Glasnow and Roki Sasaki added three more out of the bullpen.
Jesús Luzardo U4.5 Hits Allowed (-139)
While Luzardo isn’t the most consistent pitcher in the league, he’s a true ace on his best day. He ended the season hot with a seven-inning, three-hit gem against the Miami Marlins, walking none and striking out 10. When it’s bad, it’s really bad — he had a two-start stretch at the end of May and start of June in which he allowed 20 earned runs in just 5.2 innings of work — but more often than not, Luzardo doesn’t allow many hits. The last time he faced Los Angeles at home, he spun seven innings of scoreless ball, allowing only a single and a double to Teoscar Hernández, who was the Game 1 hero with a late three-run homer.
Plus, while he’s typically a workhorse — he’s gotten at least one out in the sixth inning in 23 of his 32 starts — he has just +120 odds to get an out in the sixth inning tonight at DraftKings Sportsbook, in part because he could potentially be asked to pitch again on four days’ rest in Game 5 on Saturday. The Phillies will also have three traditional starters available out of the bullpen, including Taijuan Walker and Walker Buehler, and with another off day scheduled for tomorrow, they could opt to pull him early and trust their relievers, even if he’s pitching well.
Enrique Hernández 2+ Total Bases (+164)
Hernández had an awful regular season, missing time with an elbow injury and spending swaths of the season below the Mendoza Line, and he recorded multiple total bases just 19 times in 93 games. If he was the same player in the playoffs as he was in the regular season, this prop bet wouldn’t be a consideration and he probably wouldn’t even be on the Dodgers’ roster.
Time and time again, he has proven himself to be a playoff riser. The fan favorite ended the season by recording multiple total bases in three of his last four games and has done so in each of Los Angeles’ three playoff games so far, and he has a career .285/.356/.525 slash line in 89 postseason games. In last season’s championship run, he started 13 of the Dodgers’ 16 games and had two or more total bases eight times.
One could argue that he’s due for regression, but Luzardo is a decent matchup for him. He posted an OPS 105 points higher against lefties than righties in the regular season, and he’s also posted his best OPS split against pitchers who give up grounders and fly balls at average rates (Luzardo’s 42.7% grounder rate ranks in the 54th percentile). Plus, Luzardo primarily throws four-seam fastballs to right-handed batters, and Hernández has posted a .541 expected slugging percentage against four-seam fastballs from lefties this season.
