11 games into his NFL career as a starter, the New Orleans Saints’ Spencer Rattler finally picked up his first win, a 26-14 Week 4 win over the New York Giants. The Saints’ win also marked a changing of the guard in other ways: for the first time in his career, Kendre Miller recorded more carries than incumbent starter Alvin Kamara, who’s been the main man in New Orleans’ backfield since 2017. As the Saints enter a Week 6 clash against the New England Patriots on Sunday afternoon, is it worth considering Miller a better fantasy option than Kamara?
The 30-year-old has finally shown some signs of his age this season: his 46.6% rushing success rate is the second-lowest mark of his career, as is his 4.5 yards per catch. He played just 56.1% of the team’s offensive snaps in Week 5 despite never averaging less than 65% in a full season since his rookie year. Miller is coming off of two solid games in a row — an 11-carry, 65-yard, one-score performance against the Buffalo Bills in Week 4 and 10 carries for 41 yards in the win. The third-year pro has graded as Pro Football Focus’ fourth-best back this season, while Kamara has been the 11th-worst.
While it’s undeniable that Miller is on pace to produce the best season of his career and has already earned himself a greater share of snaps alongside Kamara, I’m not yet ready to anoint him New Orleans’ RB1. Kamara still garnered a higher share of the team’s snaps in Week 5 and has always been one of the league’s best dual-threat running backs, moving into fifth among running backs on the all-time receptions list during the victory. Miller, who has just four catches for 19 yards this season, hasn’t yet proven that he’s capable of impacting the game in as many ways as Kamara has throughout his career. Kamara has received three more red zone carries and five more red zone targets than Miller has.
Despite his relative inefficiency this season, Kamara is still worthy of FLEX consideration in fantasy leagues, ranking as RB28 by standard scoring. He’s been poor relative to expectations, gaining 0.53 yards per attempt less than expected, according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, which means variance could make him an even more effective fantasy back. Miller, too, has lost yards relative to expectations, so it’s not like he’s so far ahead of Kamara that Moore will have no choice but to play his youngster over his veteran. Rattler has been much more conservative this season, with his average pass traveling just seven yards beyond the line of scrimmage, and in the long run, that should benefit Kamara.
I’m not sure either of them are great fantasy plays this weekend against the Patriots, who have allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards through the first five weeks, as well as the second-fewest touchdowns and the third-worst efficiency. Not all metrics are so kind to New England — it ranks just 24th by PFF’s run defense grades — but to hold James Cook to 49 yards on 15 carries in a Week 5 win over the division-leading Buffalo Bills is an objectively impressive accomplishment. The Patriots have also allowed the fifth-fewest drives into the red zone, limiting Kamara’s and Miller’s opportunities to rack up points. I’d consider starting Kamara regardless because of his borderline Hall of Fame track record, but my expectations are muted for both backs.
