Even after a first-round bye, the Brew Crew continued to steamroll the competition.
The Chicago Cubs opened up Game 1 of the NLDS on Saturday with a first-inning solo shot from Michael Busch. But the MLB-best Milwaukee Brewers answered with six runs in the bottom half of the inning. Milwaukee pounced on Cubs ace Matthew Boyd, knocking him from the game before he could escape the nightmarish frame. The team stayed red-hot in the second, rattling off three more runs to blow the game wide open.
The early offensive explosion proved more than enough run support for the team’s ace Freddy Peralta, who struck out nine over 5.2 innings of two-run ball. Chicago added a few late solo homers, but they barely put a dent in Milwaukee’s commanding lead. The team cruised to a 9-3 win and an early series advantage.
The Brewers will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage in Game 2 on Monday night before the series turns over to Chicago — and there’s no surprise that they’re favored to do so.
First pitch at American Family Field is scheduled for 9:08 p.m. ET. Milwaukee enters as a -144 moneyline favorite, while Chicago is a +1 underdog on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Cubs vs. Brewers preview
The Cubs will hand the ball to Shota Imanaga on Monday night. The 32-year-old southpaw joined Chicago as a free agent from Japan ahead of the 2024 season. His sophomore MLB campaign hasn’t quite matched the dominance of his rookie year, but he remains one of the club’s most valuable weapons.
Starting in 25 games this season, Imanaga posted a respectable 3.73 ERA and 0.99 WHIP with 117 strikeouts over 144.2 innings. But his underlying metrics suggest some luck: he owns an inflated 4.86 FIP with a 4.21 xERA.
Imanaga thrives on his offspeed work, owning a breaking run value (9) and offspeed run value (6) that rank in the top 90th percentile league-wide. His struggles, however, seem to stem from a below-average fastball. At an average velocity of just 90.8 mph, his four-seamer is one of the slowest in the game — one that opponents have slugged .567 against. He gets hit hard and struggles to keep it on the ground, a dangerous combination in October.
He last pitched against the Padres in Game 2 of the Wild Card, surrendering two runs over four innings after an opener. In three starts against Milwaukee this season, Imanaga held a 3.57 ERA with three home runs allowed.
Imanaga will face Milwaukee’s opener, Aaron Ashby. The 27-year-old lefty dominated across 43 games this season (one start), boasting a 2.16 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with 76 strikeouts in 66.2 innings.
Ashby features a blistering fastball that averages 97.4 mph, and he sports an impressive 28.1% strikeout rate. And get this: his minute 3.0% barrel rate and staggering 62.4% ground-ball rate rank in the top 1% of MLB.
He’s struggled to generate chases, his walk rate isn’t as low as one would hope, and his short extension makes his fastball seem slightly slower — but even so, not many hitters are catching up to it.
Ashby faced the Cubs three times in the regular season, posting a 4.15 ERA over 8.2 innings. He pitched 1.1 scoreless innings with a strikeout in Game 1.
Cubs vs. Brewers pick, best bet
Chicago managed three home runs in Game 1, courtesy of Busch, Nico Hoerner, and Ian Happ. The only problem? Nobody was on base for any of them. The Cubs tallied six hits and three walks on Saturday night, but struck out 12 times and went 0-for-2 with runners in scoring position. That’s simply not enough production to keep up with the steamrolling Brew Crew, with Game 1 being a brutal reminder.
The Brewers, who racked up the third-most hits in MLB and led the NL with a .322 OBP, wasted no time translating their regular-season success to October. And true to the team’s scrappy identity, they did it all without a single homer. Milwaukee rattled off 13 hits and five walks, striking out just eight times. They cashed in on the heavy traffic, going a whopping 7-for-17 (.412) with RISP.
The Brewers also avoided an injury scare with Jackson Chourio, who left Game 1 with a hamstring injury after going 3-for-3 with three RBIs before his exit. Milwaukee announced that the star outfielder will be in the lineup and hit leadoff in Game 2.
The Brew Crew made an emphatic statement on Saturday — and with the raucous home crowd behind them again, they’ll look to keep the momentum rolling.
