The Indianapolis Colts have been one of the more positive surprises to start this NFL season. They are off to a 3-1 start to the season, tied with the Jaguars for the lead in the AFC South. They will look to build from their strong start on Sunday afternoon in a matchup against the struggling Las Vegas Raiders, who hold a 1-3 record to this point.
The Colts are seven-point favorites with -360 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Raiders are listed as a +285 underdog, and the total is set at 47.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action beyond just backing a side. This article will look at my three favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 5 Colts vs. Raiders matchup.
Colts vs. Raiders Best Prop Bets
Ashton Jeanty Anytime Touchdown (-105)
The Ashton Jeanty breakout has arrived. After some struggles in the opening weeks, the Boise State product broke free for 138 yards on the ground, 17 in the air, and three total touchdowns last week against the Bears. Expectations were high for the sixth overall pick, and the panic was a bit premature.
If Las Vegas is to find any sort of stride this season, it is going to revolve around the production of Jeanty. Geno Smith has struggled in a major way this season, leading the NFL with seven interceptions. The Raiders have eight total offensive touchdowns this season, with Jeanty producing three of them last week. They have shown an increased willingness to use him in the passing game, and he has dominated the team’s rushing attack with 68 carries already this season.
Jeanty will be pushed up the list of offensive weapons this week, with Brock Bowers expected to miss due to his lingering knee injury and Michael Mayer sidelined with a concussion. Indianapolis’ defense has had a solid overall start to the season, ranking 11th in points allowed and 17th in yards conceded. They have been particularly strong against the rush — but Jeanty is far from your average running back. Expect it to be a clear focus of the Raiders to put the ball in their star running back’s hands and for Jeanty to deliver with another score this week. Counting on him for three touchdowns feels ambitious, but expect last week’s breakout to be a sign of things to come as far as red zone effectiveness.
Daniel Jones Over 229.5 Passing Yards (-114)
There was an initial wave of frustration when the Colts announced Daniel Jones would serve as the team’s starting quarterback over former fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson. Now four weeks into the season, the tune is a little different. Jones has looked like a different player in a Colts jersey than at the start of his career with the Giants. He has been one of the better quarterbacks in all of football this season and has a friendly matchup against this Raiders team.
Las Vegas ranks 23rd in passing yards allowed, 27th in pressure rate, and 21st in net yards per pass attempt. They also rank last in the NFL in defending the pass when they blitz. This is a particularly friendly matchup advantage as Jones leads all NFL quarterbacks with 470 passing yards against the blitz this season and an NFL-best 61.5% success rate in these situations. The Raiders have blitzed at a 32.7% rate this season on opponents’ dropbacks, which is the 10th-highest rate in the league.
Zooming out a bit, Jones has thrown for 1,078 total passing yards and four touchdowns on the season, racking up 269.5 passing yards per game. He has produced passing totals of 272, 316, 228, and 262 this season. While Jonthan Taylor deserves a ton of credit for the team’s success as well, the Colts have not been shy to let Jones air it out. Expect the same to be the case tonight, with the friendly defensive matchup in mind, and for Jones to throw for over 229.5 passing yards for the fourth time this season.
Michael Pittman Jr. Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
The top name to catch these pass attempts is Michael Pittman Jr. The sixth-year wide receiver leads the Colts in targets, receptions, and receiving touchdowns so far this season. Pittman Jr. has pulled in 21 of his 29 targets for 234 yards and three scores so far this season. He is averaging 11.1 yards per reception, and 14 of his catches have resulted in a first down this year.
The Raiders have given up the fourth-most receiving yards to wide receivers this season. They have allowed 103 yards through the air to Kayshon Boutte and over 57.5 yards to five different pass catchers already this year. Looking at Pittman Jr’s production, he has pulled in receiving totals of 41, 73, 40, and 80 yards through the air, or an average of 58.5 yards per game.
Pittman Jr. has tallied over 1,000 receiving yards twice in his career, with last year’s 808-yard total marking his fewest since his rookie season. He looks to be developing some chemistry with Daniel Jones, and the level of quarterback play has been extremely encouraging for the overall offensive outlook. Jones would not be the first first-round quarterback to settle in with another organization, with the likes of Baker Mayfield, Geno Smith, Sam Darnold, and plenty more coming to mind as recent examples. Count on Pittman Jr. to continue benefitting from Jones’ production and for his best statistical games to still be on the way. Look for this to continue in this favorable matchup and for Pittman Jr. to record over 57.5 yards in this matchup for the third time this season.
