New England has opened the season 2-2, alternating wins and losses. They failed to get much going against both the Raiders and Steelers, scoring 13 and 14 points respectively, but convincingly took care of the Dolphins and Panthers with last week’s 42-14 destruction of Carolina.
The Bills are undefeated and have scored at least 30 points in every contest, with a high of 41 in Week 1.
Buffalo has put up the most EPA per dropback and EPA per carry in the NFL. That Josh Allen guy is pretty, pretty good. New England is fifth in EPA per dropback but only 31st in EPA per carry. Drake Maye is showing excellence in his second season, completing 74% of his passes with seven touchdowns to only two interceptions. The yards per attempt have improved to 8.0 from 6.7 last season and the yards per game have gone from 175.1 to 247 this season. He’s also rushed for 98 yards and two touchdowns.
Defensively, New England has allowed the seventh-highest EPA per dropback. The pressure rate is eighth-lowest and the three takeaways are tied for the fourth-fewest. The run defense has been the strength, allowing only 3.3 yards per carry and the fourth-lowest EPA per carry.
Buffalo has allowed the eighth-lowest EPA per dropback. The pressure rate is fourth-highest but they’ve only had four takeaways and nine sacks. On the ground is where this unit has been exploitable, allowing the 11th-highest EPA per carry. Opponents are rushing for 6.0 yards per carry and have scored six touchdowns. Lucky for them, New England has been poor running the ball this season.
Below are the values that could hopefully help take you to the Promised Land.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1.11M Sunday Night Showdown [$250K to 1st] (NE @ BUF)
RB Antonio Gibson – New England Patriots ($3,800)
Gibson only played 18% of the snaps last week, but had four carries in the first half for 24 yards and a touchdown, which was a goal-line opportunity. The best way to attack Buffalo is on the ground, and Mike Vrabel will likely want to ground-and-pound anyways to try and keep Josh Allen and the potent Bills offense off the field.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots ($4,800)
Stevenson rushed nine times last week, a team high, for 38 yards. He also received one target and has garnered 12 on the season, only one fewer than TreVeyon Henderson.
TE Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills ($7,400)
The spread-it-out nature of the Bills’ passing attack is annoying for fantasy, but it is what it is. Keon Coleman leads the way with 22 targets, but Khalil Shakir has 20, Kincaid is third with 18, Joshua Palmer has 16 and James Cook has 13. The Patriots are tough to run on, so things could tilt towards the air. New England has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points on average to tight ends.
This game has a robust total of 49.5 points with the spread set at 8.5 points in favor of Buffalo, so points are expected to be scored.
