Trevor Lawrence, with his flowing golden locks, was supposed to be Fabio of the NFL. The Jaguars selected him with the No. 1 overall pick in 2021 and … he’s thrown for at least 4,000 yards in two of four season but has never produced more than 25 touchdowns. The Jaguars have a record of 22-38 in four seasons.
Patrick Mahomes was the 10th pick in the 2017 draft, but he started only one game his rookie season. Since then, the Kansas City Chiefs are 90-25 with three Lombardi trophies. Mahomes has thrown for at least 4,000 yards in all but one season while producing over 25 touchdowns in every campaign, with 50 touchdowns in 2018 and 41 in 2022. He’s been a Super Bowl MVP three times, a regular season MVP twice, Offensive Player of the Year and named to the All-Pro team six times.
Entering this Monday night matchup, though, the Jaguars are 3-1 while the Chiefs are 2-2. Take that, Mahomes!
Jacksonville has wins over Carolina, Houston and a depleted San Francisco team. The lone loss was to Cincinnati. Kansas City lost two games to the Chargers and Eagles. No shame in that. The two victories were over the Giants and Ravens.
Kansas City is ninth in EPA per dropback on offense. Yeah, that Mahomes guy is good. The run game is fourth in EPA per carry, but no thanks to the running backs as Mahomes has done most of the heavy lifting on the ground as well. He’s carried 22 times for 130 yards and two touchdowns this year. Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt have combined for 242 yards and one touchdown on 68 rushes.
Jacksonville is 23rd in EPA per dropback. Lawrence has thrown four interceptions with only five touchdowns. The average yards per attempt is only 5.9 yards. The Jaguars have been much better on the ground, posting the 10th-best EPA per carry. Their 5.0 yards per carry is pretty, pretty good.
Defensively, both teams have been elite in defending the pass, as they rank second (JAX) and fourth (KC) in EPA per dropback. The Jaguars lead the NFL with nine interceptions. Kansas City has three. Jacksonville is 13th in pressure rate with seven sacks while Kansas City is 17th with 10 sacks. On the ground, the Chiefs have allowed the fourth-highest EPA per carry with 4.9 yards per carry while the Jaguars have the 11th-lowest EPA per carry with 3.9 yards per carry. Jacksonville has allowed one rushing touchdown while Kansas City has allowed four.
DraftKings Sportsbook has KC -3.5 over JAX with the total at 45.5.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1.5M Monday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (KC @ JAX)
Captain’s Picks
Patrick Mahomes ($15,900 CP): I don’t care that the Jaguars’ pass defense has been exquisite this season. The “murderer’s row” of quarterbacks they faced was Bryce Young, Jake Browning, C.J. Stroud and Brock Purdy. Mahomes scoffs at pass defenses and flicks them off his shoulder like specks of lint. In addition, he has rushing equity. Kansas City is implied to scored 24.5 points and Mahomes will likely have a hand in most of the points.
UTIL Plays
Travis Etienne Jr. ($9,800): I have no faith in Lawrence against a Steve Spagnuolo defense, and I imagine that the Jaguars coaching staff will want to run the ball as much as possible, for as long as possible. Etienne has rushed at least 14 times in every game this season while producing double-digit FPTS in every contest, with two over 20 FPTS.
Xavier Worthy ($8,800): In his return from injury last week, Worthy played 59% of the snaps. He should see that number increase this week. Worthy caught five of eight targets for 83 yards, good for 17.1 FPTS. He has the speed to take the top off defenses, but has earned the trust and, most importantly, targets from Mahomes at all levels of the field. Worthy also has some rushing equity with jet sweeps. He carried twice last week for 38 yards. Worthy is questionable with shoulder and ankle issues. If he’s out, I’d pivot to JuJu Smith-Schuster ($7,200). Smith-Schuster played 78% of the snaps last week and garnered six targets, catching four for 36 yards and a touchdown.
Travis Kelce ($7,600): Kelce has been underwhelming for fantasy, exceeding 10 FPTS only twice this season with a high of 12.7 FPTS. He is still second on the team with 22 targets and still has a connection with Mahomes, despite the deterioration in skills.
Fades
Brian Thomas Jr. ($10,200): Thomas leads the Jaguars with 32 targets, but they have come with empty calories. Thomas has hit double-digit FPTS only once, and that was with 10.6 FPTS. The chemistry has been off with Lawrence in the Liam Coen offense. I do think he will get better as the season progresses, but the Chiefs pass defense is formidable. I can’t pay the second-highest price for Thomas.
THE OUTCOME
I think this game is more of a slugfest than shootout with Mahomes pulling another rabbit out of his hat.
Final Score: Chiefs 24, Jaguars 19
