This matchup felt inevitable. Both the New York Yankees and the Toronto Blue Jays sprinted to the finish line in an effort to win the American League East. Toronto staved off a hot Yankees team to win on the tiebreaker, and now the two teams will settle things starting on Saturday.
The Blue Jays open as -126 moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Yankees are +104 underdogs, while the total is set at eight runs. Let’s get into my preview, prediction and pick for Game 1 between the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays preview, prediction
Luis Gil will make his third career postseason start for the Yankees on Saturday. It didn’t go very well for Gil last year coming off his AL Rookie of the Year campaign; the right-hander surrendered six earned runs in eight innings across two starts. Now he’ll try to contain a Blue Jays lineup that has rounded into form.
The good news for Gil is that he has generally performed well against the Blue Jays. Toronto’s batters have a combined average of .188 and a .631 OPS over their careers against Gil in the regular season. But, as is typical for Gil, he needs to get his command together; he has a 23.8% walk rate against the Jays in his career, and walked five batters in eight innings during the playoffs last season.
His opposing number, Kevin Gausman, has a playoff reputation to set right as well. The 34-year-old right-hander has pitched to a 4.91 ERA in 25.2 career playoff innings. If Toronto wants to capitalize on its championship hopes, it’ll need to be better. And that’s going to be a tough task against the Yankees.
New York’s batters have a career .841 OPS against Gausman. Six of the team’s regular batters have an OPS over 1.000 against the big righty. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, in particular, have teed off on him over the years. That leaves Toronto in a tough spot, even as home favorites.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet
I’m not bullish on either of these pitchers for this matchup. Gil doesn’t have a good overall track record, and the command issues are a huge concern. Gausman’s lack of playoff success and struggles against the Yankees are worrisome. It leaves this game up in the air.
I trust in the Yankees to keep their momentum rolling and jump on the rested Blue Jays. And you can certainly count on some runs being scored.
