The Machine Merab Dvalishvili is defending his Undisputed Bantamweight Championship against Cory Sandhagen in the co-main event at UFC 320. This is Dvalishvili’s fourth consecutive title fight and third defense since winning the title in September 2024. Sandhagen is 11-4 in the UFC and has won four of his previous five contests. Magomed Ankalaev takes on Alex Pereira for the second time in the Main Event of this card.
Check out my best bet for Merab Dvalishvili vs. Cory Sandhagen right here.
Merab Dvalishvili To Win By Decision (-250)
Dvalishvili has been on a generational run, winning 13 straight fights since 2018. He is tied for the third-longest winning streak in UFC history. Dvalishvili has beaten four former UFC Champions and is coming off his first finish since 2021. At UFC 316, Dvalishvili submitted Sean O’Malley in the third round in June. Dvalishvili is one of the most active champions in the UFC as he will fight for the fourth time in the last year at UFC 320.
Sandhagen fought for gold once in his career in an interim title fight against Petr Yan. Since then, Sandhagen has gone 4-1 with his lone defeat coming against Umar Nurmagomedov. Most recently in May, Sandhagen beat former 125-pound Champion Deiveson Figueiredo by KO/TKO.
Although Sandhgagen is five inches taller than the Champion, Dvalishvili proved that it was not a significant issue for him against Sean O’Malley. Sandhagen averages more significant strikes (5.06 vs. 4.31) than Dvalishvili while being the more accurate striker (45% vs. 42%). But the biggest difference in this bout comes on the ground, where Dvalishvili lands almost six takedowns per 15 minutes. Even though Sandhagen has a 63 percent takedown defensive rate, until someone proves over five rounds that they can stop Dvalishvili with his versatile skillset, it is hard to go against him.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Dvalishvili is a -440 favorite while Sandhagen is a +340 underdog. The over/under for this fight is 4.5 rounds, with the over being -360. The Champion is -225 to win via decision and +450 to win by finish. Even though Dvalishvili won his previous fight by submission against O’Malley at UFC 316, he has won 11 of 13 contests via the judges’ scorecards. Since Dvalishvili is such a massive favorite in this bout, the best play is to get him to win by decision at -250.
