The Undisputed UFC Light Heavyweight Champion, Magomed Ankalaev, will defend his title against Alex Pereira in a rematch at UFC 320. Ankalaev is on a 14-fight unbeaten streak, having not lost a fight since March 2018. Pereira enters his sixth straight 205-pound title fight and is looking to avoid his second consecutive defeat of his career.
Here is my best bet for the UFC 320 Main Event between Magomed Ankalaev vs. Alex Pereira.
Alex Pereira Moneyline (+220)
Although Ankalaev won the first matchup by unanimous decision (48-47,48-47,49-46), the fight was closer than the scorecards showed. Pereira displayed elite takedown defense by not allowing Ankalev to land one during the bout. Also, Ankalaev only outlanded Pereira by 18 significant strikes.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Pereira is a +220 underdog while Ankalev is a -270 favorite. The over/under is set at 3.5 rounds in this fight, with the over being -130. In their first fight in March, Pereira was a -130 favorite over Ankalaev.
Pereira is at a crossroads in his career. He is 38 years old, and when former champions reach this point, it doesn’t always go their way. But Pereira is different. And he has been that way since he debuted in the UFC at UFC 268. Pereira has his back against the wall and is hungrier than he has been in a long time. This is Pereira’s first time challenging a reigning champion for a title since UFC 281 in November 2022.
Even though Pereira is aging and has had a 364-day drought since his last victory, I will back the guy who has put together a run in the past three years that very few have ever had. Just because he hasn’t won a fight in quite some time doesn’t take away his one-of-a-kind power and striking ability. His nickname, “Poatan,” is well-deserved. Because when he steps into the Octagon, he really possesses stone hands.
Getting Pereira at +220 is an elite value play, since we have seen him excel as an underdog in the past. Pereira was a +185 underdog against Israel Adesanya at UFC 281, and he won that contest via KO/TKO. From 2023 to 2024, Pereira reigned supreme over the Light Heavyweight division and did so in spectacular fashion. This is Pereira’s first time fighting as a non-champion since 2023, putting him in an unusual position. However, adding more fuel to Pereira’s fire is a dangerous thing to consider.
