Week 6 of the college football season is underway with another loaded slate of action. Kicking off at 3:30 p.m. ET, the Penn State Nittany Lions will travel cross-country to face the UCLA Bruins.
Penn State will be looking to pick itself up off the mat after falling to Oregon 30-24 in double overtime last week. The Nittany Lions still sit seventh in the latest AP Poll, but have allowed another opportunity to pick up a ranked victory against a National Championship caliber opponent to slip through their fingers. They now face a UCLA team that has yet to have a victory or even hold a lead this season and has already fired its head coach.
Looking at the odds for this week, Penn State enters as a 24.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook and holds -2400 odds on the Moneyline. UCLA holds +1200 odds of pulling off the outright upset with the game total set at 48.5 points.
This article will include a brief preview of both teams and a pick for the Week 6 matchup.
Penn State at UCLA prediction, preview
Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State enters with a 3-1 record but is 0-4 against the spread on the season. The program defeated Nevada, Florida International and Villanova to start the season before falling to Oregon last week. The Nittany Lions trailed 17-3 heading into the fourth quarter of that matchup and managed to take a 24-17 lead in overtime, but ultimately came up short. Penn State continues to fall into a strange category of college football programs. The Nittany Lions are undoubtedly one of the better teams in the sport, but continue to come up short when matched up against other top squads. During James Franklin’s tenure, Penn State is just 15-29 against AP Top-25 teams, 4-21 against Top-10 opponents, and 1-16 against Top-five opponents.
Drew Allar is the highest-ranked quarterback recruit that Penn State has ever had. But now in his third season as the starter, he has yet to fully look the part of this. Through his opening four games this season, he has completed 62.8% of his pass attempts for 763 passing yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions while adding 69 rushing yards on the ground. Penn State leans on its rushing game as its offensive identity, with Kaytron Allen and Nic Singleton both playing a major role. Allen has rushed the ball 46 times for 327 yards and four rushing touchdowns, while Singleton has 52 rush attempts for 200 yards and five scores. Trebor Pena, Kyron Ware-Hudson, Luke Reynolds, and Devonta Ross each have 125+ receiving yards, with Ross leading the team with three scores.
Penn State is averaging 39.0 points per game, which ranks 18th, and producing 397.0 total yards per game. They are averaging 217.0 passing yards through the air and 180.0 on the ground. Defensively, Oregon is the only team to score more than 11 points against Penn State this year. They are allowing an average of 11.8 points per game, which ranks 11th among Division I programs, and are giving up just 274.0 total yards per game.
UCLA Bruins
While spirits may be a bit dampened in Happy Valley, they are significantly worse on the other side of the country. UCLA enters this matchup with an 0-4 record at just 1-3 against the spread. They have dropped matchups to Utah, UNLV, New Mexico and Northwestern this season. The previous 17-14 loss against Northwestern is the Bruins’ lone time covering the spread (+6.5), and they have not held a lead at any point this year. UCLA elected to fire head coach DeShaun Foster following the loss to New Mexico, and his brief tenure will end with Foster leading the Bruins to a 5-10 record. Tim Skipper now holds the interim head coach title. The program also split ways with its offensive and defensive coordinators as well.
Tennessee transfer Nico Iamaleava headlines the quarterback production after plenty of attention was paid to his offseason decision-making. He has not delivered to this point. Through his opening four games, Iamaleava has completed 65.3% of his pass attempts for 788 passing yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions while adding 204 rushing yards and a score with his legs. Anthony Woods and Jaivian Thomas have combined for 232 rushing yards at the running back position, but Iamaleava has the only rushing score that UCLA has tallied. Kwazi Gilmer is the team’s top pass catcher with 19 receptions for 225 yards and a touchdown this year. Mikey Matthews and Anthony Woods have also tallied 100+ receiving yards on the season.
The Bruins are averaging just 14.2 points per game, which ranks 134th. They are producing 321.3 total yards of offense, with 197.0 of these coming through the air. Defensively, they are allowing 31.2 points per game, which ranks 119th, and they are giving up 401.8 total yards of offense per contest. UCLA has tallied four sacks and recovered two fumbles, but has yet to tally an interception on the season.
Penn State at UCLA pick, best bet
Penn State will continue to receive criticism for its inability to win big games, but if there is one thing the program remains great at, it is steamrolling bad teams. UCLA, unfortunately, fits this description. The Nittany Lions have won each of their three victories by 34+ points with an average margin of victory of 38.3 this year.
Nico Iamaleava is averaging just 6.4 passing yards per attempt and has four touchdowns to three interceptions. He has been sacked nine times and will face a Penn State team loaded with talent in the trenches. UCLA ranks 113th in PFF pass blocking rate, and this could be extremely problematic in this matchup.
The Bruins also have one of the worst defenses in the country. They rank 134th in defensive success rate against the run and 130th in defensive success rate against the pass. They held Northwestern to 17 points in their previous game, but gave up 30+ points in their previous three matchups.
This is the perfect get-right spot that James Franklin and Penn State will be hungry to capitalize on. Expect them to lean heavily on the production of Allen and Singleton in the rushing game and have the advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball. They have been unable to cover some monstrous spreads to start this season, but were 8-1 against the spread as 19-point favorites or larger just last year. It is going to take some time to build up some belief in the fan base again after the disheartening loss last week to Oregon. Look for the matchup against UCLA to be a step in this direction and for the Nittany Lions to be the clear-cut better football team and win by 25+ points.
