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MLB Best Bets: Top Home Run Props for Saturday 10/4/25

MLB Best Bets: Top Home Run Props for Saturday 10/4/25

Published:

By: Zach Thompson

The four MLB Division Series get underway this Saturday, setting up a beautiful day of baseball, starting at 2:08 p.m. ET with a game starting every couple of hours until the 8:08 p.m. ET start in Seattle. One way to add even more excitement to the slate is by playing some juicy home run props to attack on DraftKings Sportsbook. After taking a look at the matchups, game environments, odds and current form of the players available, my favorite home run props for this Saturday are from George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez and Jorge Polanco.

Just like during the regular season, here’s a quick reminder before we step to the plate and point to the flagpole to call our shot — all home run props are long-shot bets. Even the top home run hitters are more likely not to hit a home run in any single game, especially against playoff-level pitching. Home run props are never “safe” picks, but a few key indicators can point us in the right direction. Just remember that home run props are always volatile plays.

As a result, home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be heavily relied on since they’re uncertain. What makes home run props exciting is that the longer odds yield big returns when they do hit. I typically play home run props individually and in round robins at a small unit size, boosting the ceiling even higher if multiple home run props go green on a given night.

Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props on Saturday’s playoff slate.

Best Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook

George Springer to record 1+ home runs (+342)

2025 has been a remarkable bounce-back season for Springer, who looked like he was at the tail end of his career in 2024, hitting only .220 with a .298 wOBA in 145 games for the Blue Jays. He turned things around in a big way in 2025, though, hitting .309 with 32 homers and a .408 wOBA in 140 games this season.

Springer’s resurgence was a key part of the Blue Jays’ success this season and one of the key reasons they won the AL East and will host New York in Game 1. I like his home run props at this number in Game 1 against Luis Gil and the Yankees.

Gil went 4-1 with a 3.32 ERA this season in his 11 starts and gave up just five home runs. He had a 4.38 road ERA, although he did hold the Jays to just one run on three hits in six innings when he faced them this year.

Facing Gil does put Springer on the strong side of his splits, though. He hit .327 with 24 of his 32 homers and a .425 wOBA against righties. He also hit .323 with 18 of his 32 homers and a .432 wOBA at home.

Springer hit four of his homers against the Yankees, and he has smashed against New York since joining the Jays:

Springer is also a proven playoff performer, with 19 career homers in 67 postseason games in his career. I think he’s got a great shot to help the Blue Jays get a win in Game 1 with a Springer Dinger to start the playoff festivities north of the border.

Teoscar Hernandez to record 1+ home runs (+503)

After his huge Wild Card series, Hernandez is one of my top MLB DFS plays of the day, and I also like his home run props as he takes on Cristopher Sanchez and the Phillies.

Hernandez homered twice in Game 1 against the Reds after smashing 25 homers this season, giving him at least 25 long balls in five straight seasons.

One of his regular-season homers came in the closing week of the season, and four were in September. He also has had some past success against Sanchez, going 5-for-12 with two doubles and two homers in their past meetings, including this oppo taco in Philadelphia earlier this season.

Like Springer, Hernandez has a great playoff resume, with seven homers in the first 22 playoff games of his career.

The matchup is definitely not ideal, but now that we’re to the Division Series, there won’t be many cupcakes to target. Instead, we’ll look to players who can step up in the toughest competition, like Hernandez has proven he can.

Jorge Polanco to record 1+ home runs (+455)

Polanco’s home run props are a nice value play in the nightcap, and I’m backing him to help the Mariners get off to a fast start in their series against the Tigers.

Polanco hit 26 homers on the season, and the switch-hitter produced 21 of those 26 smashes against righties. He also hit 15 of them at home, and had six homers over his last 26 games while hitting .319 with a .421 wOBA and 13.4% barrel rate.

Polanco homered in his last game of the regular season to help the M’s clinch the playoffs.

Like Springer, his year has been a bit of a comeback story after he struggled in 2024 and only hit .213 with 16 homers. He struggled with injuries and only produced 16 home runs or fewer in three straight seasons before bouncing back with a big 2025.

He’s been able to hit good pitching during his recent hot streak, so he could be poised for a successful playoff run. He does have postseason experience with two homers in 12 games in the playoffs.

On Saturday night, he’ll face Troy Melton as the opener and Keider Montero as the bulk reliever. Melton gave up seven homers in his 16 games, with four to left-handed hitters. Montero gave up 16 homers in 20 games, with 10 of those by lefties.

While Polanco hasn’t homered off either pitcher in the past, he has more momentum and potential than these odds indicate, making his home run props a solid play to end the day this Saturday.

Zach has been part of the DraftKings team since 2017 and covers baseball, basketball, golf, football and any other sport that offers DFS fun. He has been playing fantasy sports since box scores were only available in the newspaper the following day. Even though he grew up almost 8,000 miles away in Guam, he is a diehard Boston sports fan but will take a fantasy value play wherever he can get it, even if it’s from the Yankees.
Disclaimer

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is z.thompson) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.