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Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Texas A&M Aggies prediction, pick for Saturday 10/4/25

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Texas A&M Aggies prediction, pick for Saturday 10/4/25

Published:

By: Blake Krass

Texas A&M is hosting Mississippi State on Saturday night of Week 6. The game will take place at 7:30 p.m. ET in College Station, Texas.

The Aggies are 15.5-point home favorites in this game on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at 56.5 points. This is a preview, prediction and pick for this Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M SEC conference matchup.

Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M prediction, preview

Mississippi State Preview

It has been a great start to the season for Mississippi State. The Bulldogs registered a massive win over Arizona State in their non-conference slate, then took Tennessee to overtime in a great effort to start SEC play. They don’t have the pieces to compete for a College Football Playoff spot this season, but all signs point towards this program heading in the right direction. After spending the post-Mike Leach years in the basement of the SEC, the start of this season is finally showing that the Bulldogs are working their way out. Veteran quarterback Blake Shapen has this offense humming, with the running back duo of Bothwell and Booth playing great as well. Jeffy Lebby will have multiple chances to pick up a signature SEC win this season to really propel the program forward.

Texas A&M Preview

The Aggies have one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. Sophomore quarterback Marcel Reed has taken a step forward after a promising freshman campaign. The Aggies’ receiving duo of KC Concepcion and Mario Craver is one of the best in the country. They also have a great veteran running back, Le’Veon Moss, to keep the offense balanced. Unlike other recent Texas A&M teams, the offense was clicking, but the defense was struggling to get stops. However, last week, they held Auburn to just ten points. That being the first game after the bye week gives real hope that Mike Elko made adjustments on the defensive side of the ball and will have that unit playing better the rest of the season. If things continue to click in College Station, this could be a College Football Playoff team.

Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M pick, best bet

My best bet for this game is for Texas A&M to cover the large spread as home favorites. Despite the bright start to Mississippi State’s season, there are also major red flags. They have a tough run defense, which helped them take down Arizona State. However, they have struggled on the back end of the defense. They rank 69th in the country in defensive EPA/pass and got torched by Tennessee through the air. Joey Aguilar threw for 335 yards and was able to hit deep shots down the field. That game was on the road, but this one will be in the insane environment of Kyle Field. Marcel Reed should be able to hit his amazing receivers and create explosive plays on offense. The Mississippi State offense will not have the same success as it did against Tennessee. In a brutal road environment against an elite defensive coach, it could be a struggle for Blake Shapen. The Aggies should run away with this one and cover the spread.

Best Bet: Texas A&M -15.5 (-112)

Blake Krass has contributed to DraftKings since 2024, and is a content creator with a specialty in sports betting. Blake primarily focuses on college football and NFL coverage but will also be covering college basketball, the NBA, MLB and more. Prior to arriving at DK, Blake was a sports betting writer for The Action Network.
Disclaimer

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is blakekrass) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.