A massive Big 12 showdown is on deck for Week 6 of the college football Saturday slate. The No. 11 Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-0) travel across the state to the big city for a matchup against the Houston Cougars (4-0). With both teams unbeaten, only one will leave this game unscathed with their perfect record intact. Will it be the nationally ranked Red Raiders, or can the Coogs dig deep to upset one of the conference favorites?
Let’s dive into the details with a Houston vs. Texas Tech prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Houston vs. Texas Tech prediction, preview
Houston Cougars
The Cougars are undefeated thus far with wins over FCS’ Stephen F. Austin as well as cross-town rival Rice, Colorado and Oregon State. They’ve performed quite well in Willie Fritz’s second year as head coach and now hit the Big 12 slate with hopes of competing for a conference title. Houston’s offense averages 379.5 yards and 31.3 points per contest, some very solid marks. The Cougars prioritize the ground game with 171.5 yards per contest in that phase. Dean Connors leads the way with 324 yards and three touchdowns, and quarterback Conner Weigman sits second among rushers with 141 yards and a team-high four scores. The Texas A&M transfer’s passing numbers aren’t spectacular with just a 61.3% completion rate and 839 yards, but he’s tossed six touchdowns to just one interception and led his team to its undefeated record.
His top target in the receiving game is tight end Tanner Koziol, whose 23 catches are a team-high with 234 yards and two scores, the latter stat of which ties for the team lead. Wideout Stephon Johnson’s posted a team-best 235 yards and two touchdowns on just eight receptions as a big-play threat, and Amare Thomas sits third on the roster with 14 catches for 214 yards and a score. The passing game isn’t exactly one that dominates with a shade over 200 yards per contest, but they get the job done well enough. As for defense, the Cougars are elite on that end with 265.5 yards and 13.3 points allowed per contest, both marks inside the top 20 in the nation. They’ve sacked opponents nine times and have five interceptions and seven forced fumbles as well.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Coming in at No. 11 in the latest AP Poll, Texas Tech enters following a much-needed bye week. A hard-fought win over Utah back in Week 4 saw quarterback Behren Morton go down with a neck injury and miss the remainder of the contest, so he’s had a bit of time to heal up and will start on Saturday. That’s great news for the Red Raiders as their QB boasts a 69% completion rate with 1,085 yards, 11 touchdowns and three interceptions on the year as the gunslinger in one of the nation’s top offenses. If something changes and he can’t play, or if he re-aggravates his injury, the team remains in good hands with backup Will Hammond. The redshirt freshman went 13-for-16 with 169 yards and a pair of scores once he subbed in against the Utes while adding 61 yards on the ground, quite the impressive performance.
The Red Raiders average 573 yards of offense and a staggering 52 points per game, both the second-best marks in the country. They can gash opponents on the ground or through the air with a run game headlined by Cameron Dickey’s 232 yards and six touchdowns, though two more halfbacks behind him each have 200+ yards on the campaign. As for pass catchers, five players have tallied at least 200 yards via the air as wideouts Coy Eakin and Reggie Virgil each have four touchdowns along with tight end Terrance Carter Jr. It’s a truly deadly offense coming out of Lubbock, but the defense remains equally formidable. Texas Tech allows just 11.25 points and 238.8 yards per contest, both marks which fall in the top 10. The front seven stifles the run in particular and has logged 10 sacks on the year, while the defense as a whole has six interceptions and four forced fumbles. Simply put, the Red Raiders are elite at both ends.
Houston vs. Texas Tech pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Texas Tech as a 12.5-point road favorite on Saturday with -500 odds on the Moneyline. Houston enters as a +380 ML home underdog with the game total set at 51.5 combined points.
This shapes up as one of the more intriguing matchups of the day, especially with both sides undefeated and vying for a Big 12 title this season. There’s a world where this one is close, especially since both sides have a great defense, but here’s where things really split off. Texas Tech’s run defense is what should decide this contest. The Red Raiders allow just 56.3 yards per game on the ground, the second-fewest of any FBS program. With a stifling front seven, this team faces a test against a run-first UH squad but will likely have the upper hand even in the face of a very good ground game after shutting down one of college football’s best in Utah a couple of weeks back.
If the Red Raiders clamp down on their opponent’s rushing attack, they see the chance to jump out to an early lead and play from ahead throughout the contest. The Houston defense allows 125.3 rushing yards on average, so they’re relatively average in that regard and will be outmatched in the trenches here. Beyond that, a very explosive TTU offense with so much talent can beat the Cougars in a variety of ways. If Houston ends up having to play from behind, they’ll face an uphill battle while trying to play catch-up. Texas Tech still sees a great shot at covering here.
