There’s been a lot of quarterback news heading into this Week 5 tilt. So much that it’s easy to forget that this game is set to kickoff at 9:30 a.m. ET in London, England. Dillon Gabriel will make his first-career start. Carson Wentz will make another start for the Vikings with J.J. McCarthy still sidelined. Sheduer Sanders thinks he’s a mime. There’s a lot going on!
With how early this contest will get going on Sunday, you won’t have too much time to make bets. Allow me to expedite the process. Here’s who you should be backing with a first touchdown scorer prop in this international matchup between Minnesota and Cleveland.
Vikings vs. Browns First Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
David Njoku First Touchdown Scorer (+1600)
With a new quarterback under center, you could simply toss every Browns’ statistic from the first four weeks out the window. However, I do think it’s important to illustrate how much of a void that Cedric Tillman leaves following his hamstring injury in Week 4. Tillman wasn’t playing quite as many snaps or seeing quite as many overall targets as Jerry Jeudy (+1300), who is the No. 1 wideout in this offense, yet the 6’3 receiver was providing Cleveland with a big-bodied target near the end zone. That’s why Tillman had registered a pair of touchdowns and was leading the team in red zone targets. With Tillman now out of the picture for at least four weeks, it’s time for David Njoku to step-up. Last season, in this same Kevin Stefanski system, Njoku saw twice as many targets as any other Browns’ asset inside the opponent’s 10-yard line (10) — and that was while only playing 11 contests. The veteran TE is a high leverage threat and he should act as a security blanket for his rookie pivot on Sunday. I’m expecting a lot of volume.
Carson Wentz First Touchdown Scorer (+2000)
I will fully admit that the smart bet here is to simply take Jordan Mason (+380) to score the first touchdown. Despite only starting twice this season, Mason has handled a whopping 81.8% of the Vikings’ rushing attempts in the red zone — the third-highest rate of any running back in the NFL. That said, there’s not a lot of value in that prop. I think it’s also worth remembering that the team’s 6’5, 240 pound quarterback could also be deployed as a goal line weapon. Carson Wentz doesn’t have as many career rushing touchdowns as you might think (it’s only 11), but he might actually be Minnesota’s safest option near the end zone. The Vikings will be playing this contest down three starting offensive linemen. If they’re at the one-yard line, a tush push might start looking much more appealing than turning around and handing the ball off five yards away from the end zone. Just saying.
