The National League Central was a thrill ride all summer long — and now, it all comes to a head in October.
After disposing of the San Diego Padres in the Wild Card round, the Chicago Cubs now head north to face the MLB-best Brewers in an NLDS clash. It’s the first-ever postseason meeting between these division rivals, with Game 1 set for Saturday afternoon.
Chicago led the division early in the year until Milwaukee hit the gas and left the rest of the league in the dust. The Brew Crew ripped off an eight-game winning streak in May, followed by 11 straight in July, and a franchise-record 14-game surge in August. That dominant stretch vaulted them to the No. 1 seed in the National League bracket — and a first-round bye — with a league-best 97 wins.
But the Cubs have been a thorn in Milwaukee’s side all season, winning seven of their 13 matchups. This feels like an evenly matched series — one that could easily go five games to decide which Central contender moves on to compete for the pennant.
First pitch at American Family Field is scheduled for 2:08 p.m. ET. Milwaukee enters as a -164 moneyline favorite, while Chicago sits as a +134 underdog on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Cubs vs. Brewers preview
Cubs manager Craig Counsell, who helmed the Brewers from 2015-2023, is waiting to see how his pitchers look in Friday’s practice before naming a Game 1 starter. According to ESPN, southpaw Matthew Boyd (3.21 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 154 K) is in consideration to start after delivering 4.1 innings of one-run ball in Game 1 of the Wild Card. However, there are two more arms at Counsell’s disposal that would allow his ace some additional rest: right-handers Colin Rea and Javier Assad.
Rea, 35, should be available after spinning 1.2 scoreless innings of relief in Game 2 against San Diego. He started 27 games this season (32 appearances), posting a 3.95 ERA and 1.25 WHIP with 127 strikeouts across 159.1 innings. While his underlying metrics don’t scream “ace,” he rode serious momentum into October — sporting a 1.93 ERA with 29 strikeouts and just one walk in his last four outings.
Assad, 28, didn’t appear on the Wild Card roster after pitching on Sept. 28. Sidelined by injuries for much of the season, Assad held a 3.65 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and 23 strikeouts across seven starts (eight appearances). His low fastball velocity — hovering around 92 mph — could be a red flag in October, but he owns a 2.19 ERA in four outings against the Brewers. He also closed the season strongly, maintaining a 1.54 ERA in his final three appearances.
Milwaukee, well-rested from the first-round bye, turns to trusted ace Freddy Peralta for Game 1. The 29-year-old right-hander went from a solid starter last year to a Cy Young contender in 2025, posting a 2.70 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over a career-high 176.2 innings. The epitome of consistency, he racked up 200+ strikeouts for the third straight season (204) and tied for the second most starts in the league (33).
Peralta’s bag is deep — his fastball, offspeed, and breaking pitches all grade out as elite by run value metrics. He boasts a high strikeout rate (28.2%) and excels at limiting hard contact (34.5% hard-hit rate). However, his 9.1% walk rate and 37.5% ground-ball rate are areas of concern heading into October, especially against a resurgent Cubs lineup. Peralta faced the Cubs four times this season, holding a 3.43 ERA across 21 innings. He racked up 22 strikeouts, but issued 10 free passes and allowed three home runs.
The Milwaukee ace tossed just two innings in his last start against the Cincinnati Reds on Sept. 28, getting pulled early to preserve his energy for October.
Cubs vs. Brewers pick, best bet
Chicago’s bats cooled in the second half of the season (.721 OPS), but when they’re hot, this offense can hang with anyone. The Cubs mashed 223 home runs this year — the third-most in the National League and far ahead of Milwaukee’s 166. If the Wild Card is any indication, this lineup is heating up at just the right time.
Seiya Suzuki and Carson Kelly hit back-to-back bombs in Game 1, while Michael Bush provided some insurance in Game 3 with a seventh-inning solo shot. Pete Crow-Armstrong — a far cry from the MVP candidate he was in the season’s early goings — delivered three hits with an RBI in Thursday’s win. The trio of Suzuki, Busch, and Crow-Armstrong each took Peralta deep during the regular season.
What Milwaukee lacks in slugging, it makes up for with elite on-base ability. The team tallied the third-most hits in baseball and led the NL with a .332 OBP. While they can still swing for power — Christian Yelich and Jackson Chourio combined for 50 home runs this year — this lineup thrives on clogging the base paths, stringing together hits, and putting up runs in a hurry.
But momentum is everything in October — and right now, Chicago has the edge. The Cubs roll into Milwaukee drenched in champagne from their Wild Card triumph, while the Brewers haven’t played in nearly a week. Though the Brewers were the hottest team in the regular season, recent history suggests that a first-round bye can stall even the league’s most dominant teams.
