Two weeks ago, Chelsea and Liverpool were two of the only three invincible teams in the Premier League. Now, neither are, and both teams have more questions than answers. Their Premier League clash tonight at Stamford Bridge, which begins at 12:30 p.m. ET (5:30 p.m. local), is an opportunity for one of the English giants to get back on track with a statement victory over a title rival.
The Reds are slight +130 favorites to win and +285 to draw at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Blues are +180.
Chelsea vs. Liverpool prediction, pick
Liverpool was the most active team in the world this summer, bringing in nearly 500 million Euros’ worth of players, and it broke its club transfer record twice with moves for Bayer Leverkusen’s Florian Wirtz and Newcastle’s Alexander Isak. Until last weekend, the results had been flowing in — between the Premier League, the Champions League, and the EFL Cup, the Reds won seven straight matches with six winners after the 80th minute — but they then dropped back-to-back games to Crystal Palace in the league and Galatasaray in the Champions League. Wirtz has yet to register a goal contribution and Salah only has four in the Premier League after leading England’s top flight in both goals and assists last season. Plus, the Reds suffered two critical injuries in the loss to Galatasaray, as goalkeeper Alisson will be out until November with a hamstring issue and striker Hugo Ekitiké might miss the Chelsea clash as well. Liverpool will start Isak — a player of similar quality as Ekitiké — up front, but asking Giorgi Mamardashvili to make his Premier League debut at Stamford Bridge is a tall order.
The Blues have been even sloppier in recent weeks, losing in successive matches to Bayern Münich and Manchester United before beating League One side Lincoln City and losing to Brighton in the league. A 1-0 win over Benfica in the Champions League despite the Eagles producing better chances is hardly confidence-inducing, especially since their goal was an own goal. Though four different Chelsea players have found the back of the net twice, João Pedro just isn’t a pure number nine and Estêvão Willian isn’t a good enough finisher yet at the age of 18. Cole Palmer, the Blues’ best player, will miss the match with a groin injury, and his replacement, young Argentine Facundo Buonanotte, had a pretty quiet performance in the Champions League. Between the sticks, Robert Sánchez — who led the league in save percentage last season — has taken a step back, allowing six goals from 4.9 post-shot expected goals. Chelsea has gotten away with Sánchez’s sloppiness in the back by leading the league in interceptions, but its most consistent defender, Trevoh Chalobah, is currently suspended after picking up a red card against Brighton.
Both of the Reds’ losses this past week look bad, but Blues fans can’t expect Liverpool to put just three of 16 shots on target like it did against Galatasaray. Football fans might also be underrating Crystal Palace, which, between its FA Cup and Community Shield triumphs, has now won two major trophies in the last six months and hasn’t suffered a defeat since April 16, the longest active unbeaten streak in Europe’s top five leagues. The Reds also didn’t start a full-strength XI against the Turkish side, inexplicably putting Jeremie Frimpong at right wing and bringing Salah, Isak, and Alexis Mac Allister on only as second-half substitutes. Given the sorry state of Manchester United, it’s not that much of a stretch to say that losses to Crystal Palace and Cimbom are no worse than Chelsea’s losses to United and Brighton. Even though Arne Slot’s team has not played close to its potential in recent weeks, Wirtz and Isak are both due to make an impact sooner rather than later, and Palmer’s injury takes a lot of attacking juice out of Chelsea’s side. I’ll take Liverpool to earn an ugly three points on the road.
